Monday, December 29, 2008

HM stresses on zero poverty and raised self-sufficiency

HM stresses on zero poverty and raised self-sufficiency


Customary 'titah': His Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu'izzaddin Waddaulah, the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam, delivering his 'titah' in conjunction with the celebration of Hijrah 1430 Islamic new year at Istana Nurul Iman. Picture: BT/Zamri Zainal
HADI DP MAHMUD
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

Monday, December 29, 2008

HIS Majesty the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam yesterday called for continued improvements in the country's standard of living to achieve zero poverty and accelerate efforts to raise the nation's self-sufficiency rate in agriculture.

Addressing Brunei citizens in a customary titah broadcasted on Radio Television Brunei nationwide, the monarch expressed hope for faster movements in achieving the national objectives, particularly in agriculture.

"We need to raise our self-sufficiency rate to a higher level in line with our growth and needs," said His Majesty, adding that there will be continued efforts to improve standards of living suitable with the goal of achieving zero-poverty.

"Prosperity can be achieved with effort by utilising natural resources the country is endowed with. From these resources, we acquired oil and gas, and from this we gained food.

"Today we talk about Hijrah. If Muslims succeed in breaking out of the poverty cocoon, then this will be the most historic Hijrah for them."

The monarch also expressed hope, in particular for the leaders within all government agencies to be strong and honest in their beliefs, "for they are the captains who will steer the ships to the correct ports."

"Fitting with the spirit of Hijrah, everyone, especially leaders and their assistants, need to be more aware of current affairs, whether related to their daily duties or beyond them.

"If there is something that needs to be dealt with immediately, why not do so? The same goes for opportunities for change. Why not change, if it brings benefits?"

Concluding his titah, His Majesty and his family would like to extend a happy new Hijrah 1430 year and hoped that all Bruneians will gain hidayat and guidance from Allah the Almighty.

A report recently published in The Brunei Times said that Brunei's self-sufficiency rate for rice production currently stands at 3.12 per cent, with the bulk of rice consumed in the Sultanate imported from Thailand. The assistant director at the Agriculture Department spoke earlier in March of plans to raise the self-sufficiency rate to 10 per cent, although no targets were specified.

According to the report, during a working visit by His Royal Highness Prince Haji Al-Muhtadee Billah, the Crown Prince and Senior Minister at the Prime Minister's Office to the department earlier this month, plans were unveiled for a 20 per cent increase in rice production by 2010 and a 60 per cent increase by 2015.

The plans include new rice fields for the Brunei-Muara, Belait and Temburong Districts, improvements to rice field infrastructures and the use of a high-yielding variety seeds, which altogether may cost up to $50 million.

A Ministry of Culture, Youth and Sports official recently said the government can help overcome poverty by providing subsidies and facilities for the poor to be involved in agriculture to encourage them to be more economically self-reliant.

Hj Mohammad Sofian Hj Amit from the Youth and Sports Department recently said that poverty is under control in Brunei while extreme poverty is non-existent, during a group discussion at the Japan-East Asia Network of Exchange for Students and Youths programme on "Overcoming Poverty through a Social Inclusion Approach: The Status quo of Asia and Oceania in a Globalised Economy", in Tokyo, Japan.

He said poverty exists mainly among the elderly who live alone and are unable to take care of themselves after being abandoned by their family, adding that there are no homeless people or beggars on Brunei's streets but acknowledged the existence of some poor and destitute people who live in houses in poor conditions.

The Brunei Times

Thursday, December 25, 2008

MIB philosophy a bond that unites Bruneians

MIB philosophy a bond that unites Bruneians

UBAIDILLAH MASLI
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

WITH inhabitants totalling less than 400,000 people, bonded together by the national philosophy of the Melayu Islam Beraja (MIB), Brunei, the "Abode of Peace" is known to travellers and visitors alike as a safe place to be.

Living in such a close-knit society, where everyone practically knows or is related to one another, it seems only natural that one would place an amount of trust onto, in reality what could be, a near-perfect stranger. However, just how far can that trust go?

Speaking to The Brunei Times, 25-year-old Khaliq believes that Bruneians are more likely to trust each other since they live in a country with a relatively low crime rate, adding that Bruneians should consider themselves lucky and to be grateful that they have that privilege.

"If you were to go abroad, sometimes you would not have that luxury (the feeling of being safe)," said Khaliq, who frequently travels overseas for business trips.

"Walking down the street by yourself (at night), you'd have a tendency to stay wary, watching constantly behind your back... but you don't have to worry about that here (in Brunei)."

He explained that Bruneians enjoyed a sense of security and often give each other the benefit of the doubt, thinking that they would not be wronged by a fellow Bruneian.

"Lots of people, when they go to a (convenience) store to buy some groceries, they often leave their (car) engines running because they have fallen into the common perception that it's unlikely that your car will get stolen," he said.

A 57-year-old retiree who used to work in the construction sector said that the trust amongst Bruneians exists because of the culture which shapes each and every Bruneian to grow up abiding by a moral code and to live in unity and harmony.

The man, who wished to remain anonymous said that Bruneians grow up in a society where social gatherings, such as weddings, family dinners and prayers are common and is a major aspect of Bruneian culture.

He said these occasions brought together relatives where everybody gets to really know one another.

"You start talking to each other and next thing you know, you find out you are related. So, it is like you can trust the person next to you because (he or she) is maybe your relative or just a friend," he pointed out.

One 19-year-old student, Farah Mohammad has also grown accustomed to this way of life and usually would place some trust in a person that she just met.

"I think people in Brunei are more willing to trust someone and I think trust plays a big part of why Brunei is so peaceful," she said.

When asked hypothetically whether she would let someone, who said that they ran out of battery or credit on their phone, borrow her phone to make a phone call or text message, Farah replied that she would probably lend it to them, but she would first take a look at the person's body language to ensure that he or she was genuine in their claim.

However, Farah said that there was a limit to how much trust that most people would give others. She said simple things such as lending her phone to a stranger is an acceptable amount of trust.

"I would trust someone, but I wouldn't (fully) let my guard down, no matter how trustworthy they may appear to be," she said.

"Trust for someone you hardly know can only go so far."

The Brunei Times

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

ITB students to study local consumption patterns

ITB students to study local consumption patterns

BRUNEI-MUARA

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

MORE than 100 first year students of the Business and Management Department of the Institut Teknologi Brunei (ITB) are currently conducting research on consumer consumption patterns as part of their coursework in three districts in the country.

The research which began from December 22, 2008 until January 27, 2009 was the second time conducted by the department concerned.

The students are divided into 21 groups covering 15 mukimin the Brunei-Muara District; four in the Belait District and two mukim in the Tutong District.

Speaking to The Brunei Times the Business and Management Department's lecturer, Zawawi, said that by undertaking the research for the students' case study report, would enable them to learn how business economic theories work in the real world such as the theory of demand and supply.

He added that by conducting on the ground case study, the students would also be able to analyse consumers' consumption patterns.

According to him despite a modest total target of 6,000 respondents spread across the three districts, the survey would provide them with a fair reflection of the population's consumption patterns.

The research is also aimed to identify eight main items which dominates consumer expenditure, accumulate information on buying pattern influences, income and saving range of the people in the country.

"Demand base policy will be produced by these students which based on the data they received from the public. Thus, this policy is design to stimulate or restrict the demand which depends on what the relevant authorities want for the country's economic growth," he added.

According to the lecturer, the significance of the case study report is that the information obtained on consumer consumption patterns could be used as reference for other established researchers in the country to be used in their reports.

Zawawi expressed hope that members of the public would give their full cooperation to these ITB students in their enquiries about consumer consumption patterns because the outcome of the research would have an impact on their grades for their course work.

He added that the public would be able to recognise the students who are doing the research from their ITB identification cards. (NLR1)

The Brunei Times

Land allocated to locals for commercial farming

Land allocated to locals for commercial farming


Commercial agriculture: A file photo of a farmer tending to his crops. The Agriculture Department in its efforts to increase agricultural products which can be commercialised, has implemented a programme known as Agricultural Development Area where farmers can utilise the land provided for commercial farming. Picture: BT file
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

THE Agriculture Department have introduced another initiative to develop the Agriculture Industry by providing farming sites to local farmers known as the Agricultural Development Area (KKP) specifically used for commercial agriculture activities.

The initiative was aimed to encourage farmers to work on the land and then market their products and to ensure consistent yield of good quality and safe.

The aim of the KKP was to develop the site in line with the concept of Integrated Post Management for farming entrepreneurs to lessen from over-using poison, while bringing the concept of Good Agriculture Practice to enhance the quality yield and Good Farming Management with the use of hi-tech system.

Local entrepreneurs as a whole will have the opportunity to improve themselves and make plans for value-added activities. Furthermore the KKP was also aimed to encourage participation from farming cooperatives as a marketing agents and enhance the knowledge of entrepreneurs regarding the strategies of output and marketing via Human Resource Development programme.

The type of productions which has been approved for the allocated land includes vegetables, decorative, chicken, sheep, duck, hydrophonics and pineapples were among the lots which has been offered.

Each companies allowed to occupy the site will need to pay depending on the type of businesses which is being carried out during the period of one year these includes; vegetables production at $25 per year for one hectare; while decorative plants production; combined production, breeding production will cost $100 per year for one hectare.

Batumpu is one of the area which is one of the activities which is being worked on by locals in a diverse type of business to develop the country's economy, and has an area of 438 hectares and divided into two hectare for each lot which comes to 219 hectare. The area was opened in 1994 and has become a KKP by putting it under the Early Entry status which should be developed by the locals without the approvals or official agreement from the Agriculture Department. (SHS1)

The Brunei Times

Resolving world food crisis

Resolving world food crisis


Help is around the corner: A file picture showing Egyptian farmers planting rice seedlings in Egypt's fertile Delta in Abu Rayea, north of Kafr Al-Sheikh, 140 km from Cairo. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said that world food production would have to rise 50 per cent by 2030 in order to meet the earth's increasing food needs.Picture: EPA
NINA V FEDOROFF
WASHINGTON

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

SCIENCE and technology changed agriculture profoundly in the twentieth century. Today, much of the developed world's agriculture is a large-scale enterprise: mechanised, computer-controlled, and based on sophisticated use of chemistry and knowledge of plant and soil physiology.

The invention of chemical fertilisers early in the century and their increasing use, together with mechanisation and the development of high-yielding grain varieties, propelled the growth of agricultural productivity in the developed world. The Green Revolution brought these benefits to less developed nations.

As a result, despite a tripling of the global population, we have so far evaded Malthus' 1798 prediction that human population growth would inevitably outstrip our ability to produce food. Over the second half of the twentieth century, the hungry of the Earth shrank from half of its three billion human inhabitants to less than a billion of the current 6.5 billion.

Twentieth-century plant breeders learned to accelerate genetic changes in plants with chemicals and radiation — a rather shotgun approach to the genetic improvement of plants. The introduction of molecular methods began the current agricultural revolution. The use of such techniques is referred to as genetic modification (GM), genetic engineering, or biotechnology. GM crops that resist certain pests and tolerate herbicides have gained rapid acceptance in many countries.

According to the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA), GM crop adoption is growing at double-digit rates, reaching 114.3 million hectares in 23 countries in 2007. Perhaps most importantly, 11 of the 12 million GM farmers are resource-poor smallholders.

In the 12 years since their commercial introduction, insect-resistant GM crops have increased yields while significantly decreasing the use of toxic pesticides. Herbicide-tolerant plants have decreased herbicide use and encouraged the widespread adoption of no-till farming, markedly reducing topsoil loss and promoting soil fertility.

Despite dire predictions, no adverse effects of GM crops on health, biodiversity, and the environment have been documented to date. The only unanticipated effects so far have been beneficial. Insect-resistant GM corn, for example, shows much lower levels of mycotoxin contamination than conventionally or organically grown corn because the plants are resistant to the insect larvae that bore holes through which fungi enter plants. No holes, no fungi, no mycotoxins. GM techniques are widely accepted in medicine and food technology. What would we do today in the face of the growing world-wide diabetes epidemic without human insulin, now produced on a very large scale from human insulin genes expressed in microorganisms?

But the use of molecular techniques to improve crop plants continues to be rejected emphatically by many countries in Europe, by Japan, and — most tragically — by many African countries.

Recent food and energy price shocks have pulled the world up short. The so-called "food crisis" of 2008 was not really a crisis in the sense of a condition that can be resolved by the quick application of emergency measures. It has been developing for decades. And it is not likely to disappear soon, though food prices are moderating for the moment.

A human population approaching seven billion is straining the limits of the planet's ecological support systems. Water and arable land are in short supply. The climate is changing. Fossil fuel energy is expensive and contributes to climate change. Unexpectedly, we find ourselves once again staring down the barrel of Malthus' gun.

Most of the world's poorest people are rural, small-holding farmers, virtually untouched by modern agriculture. There is much room for increasing productivity. And yet, while we hear talk of a second Green Revolution, expanding the food supply today in the poorest, most crowded, and insecure nations is a formidable task.

It seems that somewhere between the Green Revolution and the biotechnology revolution, the developed world declared the battle for food security won and moved on. Citizens of many urbanised, developed countries have grown nostalgic, increasingly convinced that organic farming, a throwback to nineteenth-century agriculture, produces nutritionally superior food (it doesn't) and can solve the world's food problems (it can't). Where land is not yet limited, small-scale organic farming is an affordable luxury. The amount of arable land on the planet has not changed substantially in more than half a century. Land is lost to urbanisation, desertification, and salinisation as fast as it is added by clearing forests and plowing grasslands.

Yet the human population's growth and increasing affluence continue to push up demand for food, feed, and fiber. Now, as we begin to confront the inevitable exhaustion of fossil fuel supplies, we are asking agriculture to satisfy some of our energy appetite, as well. This is like expecting your modest annual salary to satisfy all the appetites you developed while burning through a large inheritance.

Adapting to climate change and decreasing agriculture's environmental impact, while substantially increasing its productivity, are among the key challenges confronting us in the twenty-first century. Despite the bad rap they've gotten, the GM crops in use today have already contributed to meeting both challenges. Developing an environmentally friendly agriculture for a hot and crowded planet will require the most advanced agricultural methods available, including GM techniques. Indeed, there are projects underway to develop crop varieties that use less water and maintain their yield potential under harsher drought conditions than today's crops. Will we have the wisdom to accept the growing evidence of safety and welcome these necessary survival tools?

Nina V Fedoroff is Science and Technology Adviser to the United States Secretary of State and to the Administrator of US Agency for International Development (USAid).

Project Syndicate

Indonesia seen losing 40,000 jobs by year-end

Indonesia seen losing 40,000 jobs by year-end

JAKARTA

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

COMPANIES in Indonesia will have shed 40,000 jobs by the end of 2008 as a result of the global financial crisis, a government minister said yesterday.

Employment Minister Erman Suparno projected that 23,000 workers will be let go in December, while 17,000 jobs were cut in previous months.

The jobs are in the electronics and manufacturing sectors, but he did not specify at which companies.

The worsening economic climate will result in more losses in 2009, he said without providing details. Hundreds of thousands of Indonesian workers abroad also face possible redundancy, he said.

As many as 150,000 people could lose their jobs in the first half of 2009, the head of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mohamad Suleman Hidayat, warned yesterday, calling for the swift implementation of an economic stimulus package. The official unemployment rate is around 10 per cent.

The Indonesian government lowered economic growth forecasts to between five per cent and 5.5 per cent in 2009, down from an earlier projection of 6.5 per cent. The World Bank expects a sharper contraction.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's finance minister yesterday announced measures to speed up and reduce costs for imports at two of the country's key ports, using a centralised electronic system to obtain government approvals.

The measures, which apply to licenced importers, come into effect immediately at Jakarta's Tanjung Priok port and the Central Java port of Tanjung Emas. They are intended to improve the process of importing goods into the country.

Agencies

People still in dark about new taxes

People still in dark about new taxes

IZAM SAID YA'AKUB
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

RESIDENTS in Bandar Seri Begawan's newly-zoned municipality have been left perturbed by lack of information regarding the taxes to be levied.

After waiting for more than a year, residents are concerned about the lack of transparency and representation when it comes to paying taxes for their homes and property. "We are trying to find out how will we be taxed, so we can make the necessary arrangements," said a resident of Anggrek Desa. "So far the Municipal Department has not said anything, except that it will be announced accordingly," said the resident who is employed in the private sector.

There are others who feel that more needs to be done when it comes to the services that come hand-in-hand with the taxes which are expected to come in force the new year. "Like it or not, I have to oblige with the rates (of taxes)," said a Gadong land owner who wants to remain anonymous. "Some services, such as the collection of waste may not be up to our standards, but if I was to outsource them, I'd be out of my pocket." Many would like the services to be outlined in detail so they know what is being done with the taxpayer's money. "So far it has been a one-way street, and it would be good if the municipal department took a greater look into the details as to what is needed in terms of services."

The Brunei Times contacted the Municipal Department which declined to comment on the matter. Meanwhile, members of the public are becoming frustrated with the authority which is handling the issue as they have been told that the matter is still confidential. "I had called the (Municipal) Department, to ask about when the taxes are due and to find out more about the levies, but the person answering my call said the matter was still confidential," said a member of the Civil Service, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "I called not as a member of the civil service, but as a resident of the municipal area."

"First of all what comes with the taxes? New services and better infrastructure? Since the rezoning, I do not see any improvement taking place," says a resident in Bunut.

"This side of Jalan Tutong, after the traffic lights at Telanai has never been smooth. I would be hard done by to suddenly pay an entire year's worth of taxes despite not seeing anything changing over the last 12 months," he added.

The sentiment was further echoed by residents living in Kg Mabohai and Kg Kiarong, who have spoken on condition of anonymity. The residents in question have been paying the land taxes for years on end, and while they do not complain of having to do so, their grievances lie in the services lacking.

"We pay every year the taxes to the municipal department, but the access road to our house is not maintained. Previously if there were any potholes, the cost of repairs would have to be borne by us," said a member of a family in Kg Mabohai.

On the other side of town, a resident of Kg Kiarong has spoken out about how patches of road along Jln Kiarong become flooded during heavy rainfall.

"The roads will be covered in water, and in some areas it will be deep enough to stop some cars," said the 27-year-old, Kartika Rahman.

"The water subsides shortly after, but it means that the drainage system cannot cope with the weather as it is today."

A flyer from the Municipal department outlining some of the services which come hand in hand with the taxes include access roads, street lighting, and water utilities. Alongside these there are also additional services from the Fire and Rescue Department and the Royal Brunei Police Force.

Before property owners who resided outside of the Bandar Seri Begawan Municipal area were not taxed earlier. However, after it was rezoned in August 2007, 12 additional mukims will be taxable by the Municipal Department.

The increased land boundary is aimed at improving the aesthetics of the capital and to regulate the growth and management of the outlying suburbs covers which include Kianggeh, Gadong, Kilanas and Kota Batu.

The area under the Bandar Seri Begawan municipal had been drastically increased to 100.36 square kilometres (10,036.24 hectares) from a relatively small 12.87 square kilometres (1,287 hectares) in August 2007.The Brunei Times

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Ooops, world jobless total could rise 25m, not 20m

Ooops, world jobless total could rise 25m, not 20m

PARIS

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

THE global economic crisis will push up unemployment by up to 25 million by 2010, the OECD head forecast yesterday, saying there had been a "truly scandalous failure" of regulatory supervision.

"We're heading for a loss of between eight and 10 million jobs in the OECD area... and 20 to 25 million in the world as a whole between now and 2010," Angel Gurria said on France's BFM radio.

The International Labour Organisation earlier forecast that the number of global unemployed could go up by 20 million to reach a record high point of 210 million people by the end of 2009.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris brings together 30 countries, including all the world's industrialised economies. The group conducts research and publishes economic forecasts.

Gurria also said that European countries should spend more in stimulus plans to kickstart their economies and suggested that the European Central Bank should lower interest rates because of falling inflation.

The European Union should "go beyond" the fiscal stimulus plans already announced, equivalent to around 1.4 per cent of GDP, since "all the other major countries are going beyond that", Gurria said.

He also said that the OECD economies were in recession in the current quarter and would remain so for at least the first two quarters of 2009, with many countries being in recession for most of 2009.

Commenting on the build-up to the crisis, Gurria said there had been "a truly scandalous failure of regulation... and supervision", and poor risk management and corporate governance by companies.AFP

Friday, December 19, 2008

Brunei Darussalam: Safe Haven

Brunei Darussalam: Safe Haven

19 December 2008

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Over the holiday season, Oxford Business Group will also be taking a short break. The online economic briefings will resume on January 5.We send our best wishes to all our subscribers.

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At a time when a majority of asset classes and countries look vulnerable to yet unforeseen financial shocks, the Sultanate of Brunei Darussalam provides plenty of compelling reasons for foreign investors looking for a safe financial haven.

While not immune to the global economic slowdown and falling oil prices - its main export commodity - the Sultanate appears to have very little exposure to toxic financial instruments and enjoys a stable financial sector.

Even before the global financial crisis began, the banks and local authorities were mindful of improving the quality of banking assets and promoting a culture of responsible borrowing and saving. The level of new Non Performing Loans (NPLs) is therefore quite low by regional standards.

As of 2006 a new Banking Order ensured that the local banks were well capitalised, with minimum capital requirements raised to BN dollar 100m. The local banks thus entered the global financial crisis in much better shape than many regional peers.

Yet, it is the macroeconomic story that is a source of confidence. The ongoing financial crisis tends to hit the countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios and significant external financing needs. These are usually countries which have balance of payments problems, with high currency account deficits. The case in point is Pakistan which was on the verge of financial meltdown due to the lack of external financing.

Brunei Darussalam is fortunate to have none of the difficulties experienced by highly leveraged countries with external imbalances. It has traditionally been an exporter rather than an importer of financial capital and has been running high current account surpluses, which were saved in strategic reserve funds.

Its debt-to-GDP is one of the lowest in the region and its consolidated fiscal position provides plenty of room for expansionary government spending policy. The existence of clearly formulated government spending plans is a bonus at a time when most countries are forced to improvise their fiscal stimulus.

In monetary policy, too, Brunei Darussalam looks like a better bet than most countries in the region. Brunei dollar's hard peg to the Singapore dollar does raise concern in some quarters, but in relative terms the Singapore dollar is less vulnerable given Singapore's large foreign currency reserves and well managed monetary policy.

As a place to store liquidity, Brunei Darussalam is therefore one of the safest locations in the region, which gives it an opportunity to establish itself as a financial offshore centre. However, that goal will also require attractive returns on capital, which in its turn requires healthy economic activity.

For now at least the focus is on the central government to inject new momentum into the slowing economy. The challenge is that the public investment has to come at a time of low oil prices and therefore lower government revenues.

The authorities are expected to be very cautious in prioritising their investment to preserve some of their strategic reserves against further external shocks. However, the fall in oil and gas prices might come as a blessing in disguise if the government is able to finance new projects in non-oil and gas sectors.

Even in hydrocarbons downstream space, there could be signs of new developments. When the oil prices were very high, the main issue was that the opportunity cost of using domestic oil and gas to develop new downstream sectors was quite high. That was the main sticking point in rolling out such high profile projects as the Brunei Methanol Company.

The correction in oil prices thus indirectly favours diversification, which has long been Brunei's top strategic economic goal. But as some industry players point out, the key issue is financing. Although the logic of diversification has become far more compelling, banks are reluctant to lend to corporations and financial institutions in a downturn, no matter how safe and liquid they are.

This is particularly true in so-called risky sectors such as small and medium enterprises which lack good quality collateral to raise the necessary financing. It therefore falls on the government and the public sector to play the role of financial intermediaries to get the economy back on solid footing.

Despite the challenges, the economic slowdown in Brunei Darussalam is expected to be much milder. The country may even come out of the crisis ahead of its regional peers with the strong comparative advantage of being perceived both politically and financially stable by foreign investors - a rare asset in these troubled times.

New report says government intervention is counterproductive

New report says government intervention is counterproductive


On the eve of a meeting of government officials from the G20 group of leading economies, a new report from a global group of think-tanks, including the Malaysia Think Tank, argues that the attempts by governments to intervene in the financial crisis have been counterproductive and it calls for clearer thinking on how to manage the risks inherent in the financial system.

How Not To Solve A Crisis, written by Bill Stacey and Julian Morris, notes that the financial crisis was created in part by well-meaning market interventions intended to enable low-income US households to own homes, and in part by discriminatory regulations against certain classes of asset that resulted in ‘regulatory arbitrage,’ whereby financial institutions created off-balance-sheet structures in order to generate synthetic credit.

These factors drove lending to impecunious borrowers in the US, fuelling a housing boom. The subsequent bust has led to the collapse in value of the off-balance-sheet structures. Because those structures had been used to underpin loans, their collapse has caused banks to stop lending to one another.

Sequential attempts by governments around the world to intervene in the markets and bolster lending have been largely counterproductive – they have pre-empted private market solutions and in many cases generated further moral hazard, contributing to further erosion of trust and weakening of incentives to lend. As a result, what started as a financial crisis is turning into a full-scale economic catastrophe.

There is currently talk of creating stronger and more global regulatory structures. This would be a disaster on several counts. First, as the report notes, several smaller countries have suffered less in the crisis – seemingly because of different regulatory regimes. If there had been only one global rule and it had been the wrong one, everybody would have suffered equally and we would have less knowledge as to why – and what - to do. When governments compete with one another, they have stronger incentives to identify solutions rather than placate vested interests.

Second, stronger regulation is almost certainly the opposite of what is needed. The danger of creating further incentives for counterproductive regulatory arbitrage is large. The report concludes that from a regulatory perspective, the better solution would be to create governance structures based on simple, clear rules that do not discriminate in favour of or against any particular class of asset.

The report cautions against any direct intervention by government. It notes that: “Governments are terrible at allocating resources and their attempts to boost our economies will almost certainly backfire. Economic growth is the result of entrepreneurs identifying and filling niches by developing better products and production processes, thereby boosting production and productivity. In contrast, when governments throw money at the economy, they divert resources away from their most efficient and effective uses, undermining innovation and growth.”

Finally, the report concludes that: “The best way to stimulate the economies of the world would be to reduce the number of overbearing taxes and regulations that currently inhibit the development and delivery of all manner of products and services.”

The report "How Not to Solve a Crisis" can be downloaded here.

Let Food Grow

Let Food Grow

by Douglas Southgate

After peaking earlier this year, food prices have retreated in recent months. Nevertheless, the United Nations warns of another food crisis which could push more than 100 million people back into absolute poverty.

With human numbers rising and income growth pushing up per-capita consumption too, must food remain expensive? The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization says in its latest report last week that nearly one billion people are undernourished. Are they condemned to remain hungry? Not at all.

During the second half of the 20th century, food supplies grew faster than demand and real prices for cereals declined by 75%. Because cereals account for more than 60% of the human diet, consumers paid a lot less for food.

These days, population growth is slowing but demand is still going up quickly because of improved earnings. By 2050, demand for food will probably increase between 60% and 100%. And if we don't grow more food per hectare or farm more land, real food prices will rise.

So there was nothing unexpected about the current rise in demand for food. As the Director-General of the United Nations World Food and Agriculture Organization, Jacques Diouf, said: "It was predictable and we predicted it, and it was avoidable but the world failed to avoid it."

But "the world" is not to blame: the blame lies with individual governments, especially in the poorest countries, that put up huge barriers to the movement of food, keeping prices high.

Only 15% of African trade takes place within the continent. Poor countries' tariff barriers are higher on average than in developed countries. South of the Sahara, the average tariff on agricultural imports is 33.6%. And over-regulation, red tape, delays at customs and corruption all make it worse.

Since these obstacles make inputs more expensive too, domestic producers are prevented from responding fully to higher food demand.

Ukraine is a perfect example of a country with huge agricultural potential that remains largely untapped. Simply farming more efficiently and using better inputs such as fertilizer could nearly double current crop yields. This would allow Ukraine to export 50 to 80 million more tonnes of cereal a year. This is enough in cereal-equivalent terms to feed 50 million people in China. In India, where average consumption is lower, 100 million people could be fed.

Ukraine is so well adapted to farming that it was a world leader in the mid 1880s. It was later the bread-basket of the Soviet Union and, today, it remains a net exporter despite the Communist legacy. But export quotas and other government meddling keep domestic prices artificially low, removing the incentive for farmers to grow more.

On the other side of the world, Argentina shows similar wasted potential. Farming 15 million hectares instead of the current nine million would generate an additional 30 million tonnes of cereal for export every year. This could feed 30 million people for a year in China or 60 million in India.

But, here too, production is held back by politics, with Cristina Fernandez's administration following the lead of previous governments in using every available tactic to keep food cheap, whatever the real cost. In March, export taxes on several foodstuffs were increased, with soybeans, the main export crop, now taxed at 45%. Decades of such policies have reduced the amount of land under cultivation since the early 1960s.

The vain pursuit of self-sufficiency has landed many countries in difficulty today, especially those without the vast potential of Argentina or Ukraine.

Nigeria, Senegal and Malawi pursue this mirage, while many of the poorest countries in Sub-Sahara actually are proudly "self-sufficient" in food. The result is that per capita food consumption is alarmingly low.

Governments want to keep food cheap, yet fail to realise that restricting exports and taxing farming leads farmers to invest less and produce less. So prices rise--for everyone.

The response of governments to the food crisis has largely been counter-productive: more than 30 countries introduced export restrictions or outright bans, making food prices soar further. Freeing trade and freeing farmers is the only way to get a good deal for producers and consumers everywhere.

---

Douglas Southgate, contributing author to www.WauBebas.org, is Professor of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics at Ohio State University.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Brunei Darussalam: 2008 Year in Review

LATEST BRIEFING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH


Brunei Darussalam: 2008 Year in Review

15 December 2008

Even as the external environment continues to pose fresh challenges, Brunei appears to be one of the most resilient countries in South East Asia benefiting from new policy initiatives and government-backed projects.

In the state budget announced in March, the government clearly identified its economic priorities, allocating $720m of the $3.4bn total funding to boost social services, transport and communication, public utilities, information and communication technology, public buildings, security and science, as well as research and technology development.

Of this, $204m was directed to social services, to improve education and the development of human resources, while a further $150m was set aside to support the activities of Brunei's economic development board in developing economic clusters.

One of the main planks in the government's platform of economic diversification is bolstering and opening up the Islamic finance industry. In November, after two years of debate, new legislation was ratified allowing the entry of foreign banks into the sector, as well as fully codifying Islamic financial activities in Brunei.

Prior to the amendments to the banking regulations, the Islamic sector of the industry was restricted to local companies, with foreign players in the market limited to conventional banking.

A number of foreign banks, including HSBC and Singapore-based OCBC, have announced plans to set up Sharia-compliant operations in Brunei, with new entrants expected to follow.

While improving its credentials as a centre for Islamic finance, Brunei also sees great promise in the halal products sector, both through supplying Sharia-compliant goods and services and establishing itself as an accreditation centre for such products.

Through the Brunei Halal Brand (BHB), launched in August 2007 as a mark of quality for halal goods produced locally, Brunei is now providing certification services to foreign producers wishing to guarantee their products meet the requirements of purity set out by Sharia law.

This certifying process will be boosted by the New Halal Science Centre, a research institute designed to develop new products and test existing ones. The centre will be the cornerstone of the government-backed agro-technological park at Tungku, scheduled to open in 2009. It will support the BHB project through providing opportunities for firms involved in research on halal products as well as industrial activities.

The year 2008 was also marked by the government's pledge to step up the country's environmental laws by extending the area listed as forest reserves from 41% of the Sultanate's forested land to 55%. The move, which bans logging activity from the designated areas, aims to both preserve Brunei's pristine virgin forests and support efforts to make Brunei a premium destination for eco-and adventure tourism.

Brunei also stepped up efforts to improve the infrastructure vital to trade. In particular, it launched a project in October to develop a large scale deepwater port at Pulau Muara Besar to serve as a major regional cargo and transshipment centre. When completed in 2012, the port will be able to handle up to 800,000 TEUs (20-foot container equivalent) annually. The port will also be the centerpiece of an industrial zone for halal food processing and a hub for manufacturing industries, including a proposed aluminium smelter.

While the government is working to prepare the economy for the time when the wells run dry, fossil fuels continue to be the mainstay of the Brunei economy. According to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report issued in May, oil and gas sales provide 90% of the government's export earnings and contribute to 50% of its real GDP.

Though it is estimated that Brunei has sufficient reserves to maintain production at present levels for at least 20 years - the country is currently conducting further surveys to identify new deposits - short-term revenue is expected to shrink when year-end figures are released, due to the dramatic fall in energy prices in the later part of 2008, a situation that will extend into the new year.

Brunei is also broadening the base of its energy industry, building a $400m facility in the Belat district to process methane extracted from the Sultanate's gas fields. When completed in 2010, the plant will be able to produce of 850,000 tonnes of methanol annually, most of which will be exported.

In April, the Brunei National Petroleum Company (BNPC) signed an agreement with Japanese firms Kokuka Sangyo and Itochu to establish a joint company to transport the output from the plant. The two Japanese companies will have a 30% and 20% stake respectively in the new company while BNPC's subsidiary PB Logistics will hold the remaining 50% of shares.

Though lower energy prices may reduce Brunei's export earnings in 2009, strong trade surpluses in the preceding years should allow the government to carry forward its programme of economic growth and infrastructure development, while at the same time maintaining its fuel and food subsidies.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Labor force

Labor force
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In economics the people in the labor force are the suppliers of labor. In 2005, the worldwide labor force was over 3 billion people.

Normally, the labor force of a country (or other geographic entity) consists of everyone of working age (typically above a certain age (around 14 to 16) and below retirement age who are participating workers, that is people actively employed or looking for work. Child labor laws in the United States forbid employing people under 18 in hazardous jobs.

The fraction of the labor force that is seeking work but cannot find it determines the unemployment rate.

The labor force is the number of people employed and unemployed. Participation rate is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort (national population of the same age range). In the West during the latter half of the 20th century, the labor force participation rate increased significantly, largely due to the increasing number of women entering the workplace.

Claudia Goldin and others, specifically point that by the mid 1970s there was a period of revolution of women in the labor force brought on by a source of different factors. Women more accurately planned for their future in the work force, investing in more applicable majors in college that prepared them to enter and compete in the labor market.

In the United States, the labor force participation rate rose from approximately 59% in 1948 to 66% in 2005, with participation among women rising from 32% to 59% and participation among men declining from 87% to 73%. Conversely, the labor force participation rate can decrease when the rate of growth of the population outweighs that of the employed and unemployed together.

The labor force participation rate is a key component in long term economic growth, almost as important as productivity.

Pop = total population
LF = labor force = U + E
LFpop = labor force population
p = participation rate = LF / LFpop
E = number employed
e = rate of employment = E / LF
U = number of unemployed
u = rate of unemployment = U / LF

The labor force participation rate explains how an increase in the unemployment rate can occur simultaneously with an increase in employment. If a large amount of new workers enter the labor force but only a small fraction become employed, then the increase in the number of unemployed workers can outpace the growth in employment.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Deflation risks in China, Japan as demand slumps


Deflation risks in China, Japan as demand slumps

By Simon Rabinovitch and Hideyuki Sano

BEIJING/TOKYO, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Deflationary fears spreading over the global economy are crashing into Asia's manufacturing base as data on Wednesday showed a sharp slowdown in wholesale price growth in the region's top two economies, Japan and China.

Recessions in developed economies spawned by the financial crisis have whipsawed policy makers from battling upward cost pressures during the middle of the year to what is now a dire drop in prices, reflecting rapidly vanishing business and consumer demand.

Annual producer price inflation in China, Asia's second-biggest economy, collapsed for the third consecutive month to 2 percent in November, well down from October's reading of 6.6 percent. [ID:nPEK42337]

In Japan, which only emerged from a decade of falling prices in 2005, annual growth in factory-gate prices slowed rapidly in November to a one-year low of 2.8 percent from 5.0 percent in October. [ID:nT33767]

"The situation is quite severe. We are slipping into a deflationary recession risk pretty fast," said Isaac Meng, an economist with BNP Paribas in Beijing.

Global demand is weakening sharply with major markets including the United States, Japan and the euro zone all in recession.

China's growth is expected by the World Bank to slide in 2009 to 7.5 percent, below a level of 8 percent widely regarded as the minimum needed to absorb millions of people entering the work force each year. It expanded 11.9 percent in 2007.

LOOKING TO CONSUMER PRICE DATA

A drop in crude oil prices of more than $100 a barrel since a peak in July was a big factor putting pressure on prices in both China and Japan.

China, celebrating the 30th anniversary since the launch of reforms that opened its economy to the world, recently overhauled its domestic fuel pricing system, pledging to ease back on subsidies beginning next year.

Analysts said that if domestic fuel prices had been completely decided by the market last month, then producer prices would almost certainly have fallen.

For a graphic of the PPI, please click on: here

Consumer inflation figures for November, due on Thursday, are likely to underscore the dramatic retreat in price pressures as energy and commodity costs slide and domestic demand weakens in tandem with the global economic downturn.

The consumer price index is expected to have risen 3.0 percent from a year earlier, a marked reduction from a near 12-year high in February of 8.7 percent, a Reuters poll shows.

"We expect prices to decline further as external demand remains weak and surplus goods are targeted at the domestic market," Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities with JPMorgan in Hong Kong, said in a note.

DEFLATION NATION?

Japanese machinery orders from foreign operators dived 37.2 percent in October, the second-largest fall on record, showing how the implosion in global markets since mid-September has disrupted economic activity around the globe.

Corporate investment has driven Japan's growth in recent years but is expected to slow now that major exporters such as Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) are curbing production and cutting jobs to cope with a global downturn. [ID:nT7887]

"In anticipation of a sharp fall in U.S. demand, Asian manufacturers, including subsidiaries of Japanese firms, are reducing production at an unprecedented pace," said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research.

Policy makers continued to offer sobering assessments of their respective economic outlooks while firing every fiscal and monetary weapon to protect against the global recession.

The Japanese government is likely to issue its bleakest assessment of the economy in nearly seven years this month, downgrading its official view to say conditions are worsening, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Some economists speculate that the Bank of Japan may have to cut interest rates again by the end of its fiscal year in March.

However, swap contracts on Japan's benchmark rate -- already a slight 0.3 percent -- reflect a 20 to 30 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut early next year.

The remarkable slackening of inflation in China, which Beijing declared the top economic problem at the start of the year, has given policy makers room to cut interest rates and focus fiscal efforts on the economy.

However, with China already having slashed rates and announced a 4 trillion yuan ($580 billion) stimulus package, concern is turning to whether these measures may prove too little, too late.

"Although various nations have rolled out stimulus policies, I think it is still too early for them to produce desirable effects," Zhang Yongjun, senior economist at the State Information Centre in Beijing, said.

In a rare bright spot for economic news, a survey in Australia showed a surprise jump in consumer confidence, a sign that falling interest rates and fuel prices, combined with fiscal stimulus, are having an affect.

Whether that cheer will translate into actual spending is unclear.

(Writing by Kevin Plumberg; Editing by Neil Fullick)

© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved

Good Grades For Brunei In Education Equity

Good Grades For Brunei In Education Equity
By Azlan Othman

Bandar Seri Begawan - A global ranking on education equity recently released by UNESCO has placed Brunei 36th out of 129 countries surveyed.

In its 2009 Education for All (EFA) Global Monitoring Report launched last week in Geneva, UNESCO placed Brunei and Malaysia are on a list of 56 countries with a high EFA Development Index (EDI).

Brunei scored an EDI of 0.972, Total Primary ENR of 0.974 and Adult Literacy Rate of 0.946.

Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam were not included in the report, along with the United States and Australia. Kazakhstan was on top, followed by Japan, Germany, Norway and the UK. Last year's report saw Norway in first place, while the UK topped the list in 2006.

The annual Global Monitoring Report, available at www.unesco.org, is a means of monitoring countries' progress toward achieving six EFA goals, set in 2000, by 2015.

The EDI is a composite that uses four of the goals, excluding the first and third, selected on the basis of data availability. The universal primary education goal is measured using the indicator of total primary net enrollment (NER) — the percentage of primary school-aged children who are enrolled in either primary or secondary school; while the quality of education goal is measured using the proxy indicator of the survival rate to fifth grade.

The EDI can vary from 0 to 100 per cent, or 0 to one when expressed as a ratio. The closer a country's EDI value is to the maximum, the greater the extent of its overall EFA achievement and the nearer the country is to the EFA goal as a whole.

The current national development plan (2007-2012) and the Brunei Vision 2035 emphasise the accomplishment of a well-educated, highly skilled society with a world-class education system that promotes lifelong learning as its hallmark.

To meet the needs of the 2V century, the SPN 21 was introduced by the Ministry of Education and will be phased into the country's schools in 2009, accompanied by new and revised assessment procedures to measure achievement.

Various education plans ranging from teaching science in English as early as in Primary One, increasing the number of schools, raising the number of students entering the science stream, boosting the participation rate in higher education and technical route are taken by the Ministry of Education.

The plans include having more schools and upgrading the facilities of existing schools as well as increasing the number of secondary schools by about 40 per cent (11 new secondary schools and eight primary schools) in the next five years. This is to meet present and future needs. -- Courtesy of Borneo Bulletin

Globalisation Is The Solution Not Cause Of Current Crises

Globalisation Is The Solution Not Cause Of Current Crises
By Narissa Noor

Bandar Seri Begawan - Globalisation is not the cause of the current problems the world is facing, it is their solution.

His Majesty the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam succinctly put it in his titah yesterday at the inaugural session of the 2008 Bali Democracy Forum, at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Bali, Indonesia.
His Majesty shared the stage with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister of East Timor Xanana Gusmao and others to discuss efforts in strengthening democracy in the region beset by a myriad of crises.

Accompanying His Majesty was His Royal Highness Prince Mohamed Bolkiah, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

The forum was attended by Head of States and Government, Ministers from Asean, the Asia-Pacific, South and Central Asia and the Middle East.

Speaking about globalisation as a solution, His

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Majesty said, "It provides chances like this for us to meet, discuss and devise ways of working together to meet the latest challenges successfully and to do this as governments."
The monarch welcomed the positive approach to global crises such as food and energy problems and the financial crisis, implicit to the forum.

"In Brunei, our system of government has lived through seven hundred years of (near unremitting crises)," said His Majesty and added that the country has persevered through "good governance".

Albeit several types of governments that exist in the region, there is one system that links them all. "It is complex and closely bound in its own very old history but, in English, it can be defined as a 'Social Contract'."

"Like all contracts in any system, if it's maintained, we all succeed. If it lapses, we all suffer," said His Majesty and added that good governance remains the fundamental basis of its success.

"This means ensuring that we all meet the targets set in the Millennium Goals," stated the monarch, emphasising its precedence in fulfilling the government's responsibility in providing its people with confidence for the future.

"For us, this means providing maximum healthcare to all, good education from early childhood onwards, easy personal access to government and its departments and agencies, the rule of law applying to everyone and respect for each individual, each family and each community, whatever their background, culture or faith," said the ruler.

His Majesty also referred to the achievement of Brunei's 30-year national vision, or "Wawasan", and what it means for economic development in the form of employment and future prospects.

Reiterating the importance of the Millennium Goals, His Majesty described an end result which hopes to give a strong regional and world view on the part of the Brunei people, "one which promotes respect and understanding for every other country and government".

This, His Majesty said, is the basis on which Brunei seeks to play its part in the affairs of the region and international organisations to which it belongs.

Co-chaired by President Yudhoyono and Australian Premier Rudd, the two-day forum is being held at Nusa Dua in Bali, and carries the theme "Building and Consolidating Democracy: A Strategic Agenda for Asia".

The opening session of the forum was followed by a lunch hosted by President Yudhoyono for the Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Head of Delegations attending the forum.

His Majesty left Bali for Brunei yesterday afternoon.

A doa selamat was read by State Mufti Pehin Dato Seri Maharaja Dato Paduka Seri Setia Ustaz Hj Awang Abdul Aziz bin Juned.

His Majesty was bid farewell at the airport by senior Indonesian government officials and Brunei Ambassador to Indonesia, Pehin Datu Harimaupadang Major General (Rtd) Dato Paduka Seri Awang Hj Husin bin Ahmad. -- Courtesy of Borneo Bulletin

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

East Asia to slow, govts must spend more-World Bank

East Asia to slow, govts must spend more-World Bank

Editor: evewen
10 Dec 2008 07:08:44 GMT

SINGAPORE, Dec 10 - Economies in East Asia will slow substantially in 2009 as the credit crisis depresses capital flows, exports and investment despite government attempts to boost domestic demand, the World Bank said on Wednesday.

In its semi-annual report, the World Bank predicted, however, the East Asian region will a less severe slowdown than Europe, Central Asia or Latin America, which are similarly exposed to international trade and finance.

It also advised governments to use direct spending, particularly on ongoing infrastructure projects, to stimulate demand.

Economic growth in East Asia, excluding Japan, will slow to 5.3 percent in 2009 -- its slowest pace since 2001 - from a projected 7 percent this year and 9 percent in 2007, it said.

China's growth could ease to 7.5 percent in 2009 from 9.4 percent in 2008, the World Bank said.

(for a graphic with key forecasts, please click on: https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/AS_GDPFCST1208.gif)

It said the region had entered the crisis in far better shape than during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, with stronger public finances, external balances and healthier banks and companies.

"Nevertheless, the sudden withdrawal of liquid assets by non-resident investors, combined with capital flight by residents in some places, has pushed these economies back into the danger zone from which they had exited only a few years ago," the World Bank said.

Most expenditure components, barring increased government spending in some countries, will be under pressure in east Asia in 2009, the World Bank said. Export markets would also be sluggish.

"Investment looks likely to be constrained by receding capital inflows and poor prospects for exports.

"Private consumption will be under pressure from more sluggish earnings, weaker employment, and an increased desire to save in hard times," the World Bank said.

The projections could be skewed to the downside by a much longer and deeper downturn in developed economies and the risk of capital flows remaining weak for a prolonged period, the World Bank said.

Commodity prices may slump further should global growth weaken more substantially, bringing in challenges related to deflation, it said.

GOVERNMENT SPENDING

The World Bank said that even though aggressive monetary easing appeared to have cushioned the impact of the crisis on domestic liquidity, difficulties lay ahead.

"The authorities need to be mindful that companies and commercial banks will remain under financial stress that will probably get worse as economic activity slows, defaults accelerate and balance sheets deteriorate," it said, while advising further medium term efforts to improve banking and financial supervision.

Governments trying to buffer their economies through fiscal measures will find the market continuously shifting its assessment of how these countries can finance fiscal stimulus programs without endangering fiscal sustainability, it said.

While tax cuts could help consumer spending over a longer horizon, there is concern consumers would save rather than spend money under current circumstances, it said.

"Direct government spending at this point, therefore, is likely to be a superior option to boost economic activity," the World Bank said.

"New infrastructure spending, however, has long lags before making an impact on the economy, unless the authorities are accelerating projects already under implementation."

Social transfers have also typically been most effective in stimulating spending, and would also protect the poor from the worst effects of the crisis, it said.

(For a table on the World Bank's GDP forecasts, click on [ID:nSGE000084])

Sunday, December 7, 2008

$500m paid capital must for Islamic banking business

$500m paid capital must for Islamic banking business


New laws: Hjh Nurliati Hj Md Idris (C), talks about the Takaful Order 2008 during a briefing session held at the Ministry of Finance yesterday. Picture: BT/Saifulizam
UBAIDILLAH MASLI
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

Sunday, December 7, 2008

UNDER the new Islamic Banking Order 2008, a minimum paid capital of $500 million is required for a foreign head office as one of the criterion for granting and refusing licences to carry out an Islamic banking business in Brunei.

This was disclosed yesterday during a briefing session on the two new orders, Islamic Banking Order 2008 and Takaful Order 2008, held yesterday at the theatre hall of the Ministry of Finance, where the main highlights were explained by a panel of officers from the Financial Institutions Division (FID).

When compared to regulations on conventional banking and insurance systems, the two Orders were found to be quite similar to pre-existing legislation for normal banks and insurance.

Differences include the above criteria for granting and refusing license to carry out Islamic banking business in Brunei, which under the Banking Order 2006, the requirement is $1 billion.

Another difference stated was that the new Orders ensured that products and services were Syariah-compliant. Under the Takaful Order 2008, any product had to be approved by the Syariah Financial Supervisory Board before it can be deemed as a takaful product.

In light of the "uncertain financial environment", the permanent secretary at the Ministry of Finance yesterday urged senior corporate citizens to play their part in ensuring the financial stability and orderly running of the financial system, with regards to the recent introduction of the two new Orders.

Dato Paduka Hj Ali Apong told representatives of Islamic banks and Takaful operators that alongside the ministry's efforts, relevant financial institutions should take their own initiative and avoid simply waiting for instructions from the government on what to do.

"It is in your best interest that our financial sector continues to remain sustainably stable," he said.

"I urge you to hold more and regular discussions amongst yourselves, with regulators to encourage fruitful exchange of views and perspectives on the best way forward."

He reminded them of the need to comply with the regulations and requirements of the ministry and to be equally, if not more, proactive and responsible. He made these statements as the guest of honour at the briefing session yesterday.

The introduction of the new regulation was seen as another impetus to the regulations in the industry.

The permanent secretary said that it was the ministry's aim to expand the Islamic banking sector in Brunei through creating a level playing field for conventional and Islamic banks.

With the Takaful Order 2008, this new legislation hoped to provide a platform for takaful operators to compete more easily with conventional insurers.

It was hoped that with the introduction of the new Orders, Islamic banking, insurance and the takaful sector in Brunei would expand and be developed with new products launched within the regional and global arena. (ODM1)

The Brunei Times

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Rate cuts spearhead battle against crisis

Rate cuts spearhead battle against crisis

BANGKOK/LONDON

Thursday, December 4, 2008

THAILAND led a global charge to cut interest rates yesterday, with countries from Europe to New Zealand expected to follow in the next few days to fight an unrelenting financial crisis.

South Korea took steps to help local banks through a cash crunch and US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was reportedly debating if he should ask lawmakers in Washington for the second half of a US$700 billion bank rescue package.

Russian state bank VEB reportedly asked the Kremlin for a US$34 billion cash injection in the latest sign that the major emerging market was also feeling the heat of a crisis that has forced the United States, Japan and Europe into recession.

Pressure for big rate cuts in Europe and Britain grew with a survey that showed the eurozone's services economy fell deeper into recession in November than first thought.

The Bank of Thailand slashed its main interest rate for the first time in 16 months to help an economy hit both by the global downturn and political unrest, cutting its main interest rate by a bigger-than-expected 100 basis points to 2.75 per cent.

Australia slashed rates on Tuesday and the eurozone, UK, Sweden and New Zealand all make rate decisions today.

The Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index for services companies, which covers banks to bars in the eurozone, plunged to 42.5 in November from October's 45.8 level, the lowest in the survey's 10-year history.

It also showed inflationary pressures eased, making it easier for the European Central Bank to cut rates sharply.

"There is ample room for the ECB to cut rates ... We think 75 basis points will be the compromise, but we would not rule out a cut by 100 basis points," said Juergen Michels at Citi.

The equivalent survey for Britain showed its dominant services sector shrank in November at its fastest pace since the series began in 1996, boosting expectations the Bank of England will slash interest rates by a full point today.

The Federal Reserve, which is also expected to cut US rates again later this month, will release its closely-watched Beige Book of economic conditions later in the day.

Reuters

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Reevaluating Asean Charter

Reevaluating Asean Charter

BARA HASIBUAN
JAKARTA

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

AS THE Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Summit — initially to be held in Bangkok in mid-December with the adoption of the Asean Charter on top of the agenda — is likely to be postponed due to the continuing political unrest in Thailand, it would be worthwhile for the organisation's leaders to rethink the Charter itself.

It is true that for many in the region the Charter is a milestone. For the first time in its 41-year existence, Asean has a constitution which can potentially lead it to be "a rule-based and people-oriented" entity.

It even indeed sets out rules for the Asean members and gives the organisation legal personality. More importantly, it enshrines the principles of "respect for fundamental freedoms, the promotion and protection of human rights and the promotion of social justice". It also calls for the establishment of a human rights body to ensure that every member state adheres to the Charter's principles.

But, unfortunately the Charter fails to include a provision which would authorise sanctions for any member that does not comply with its rules and principles. And it remains unclear how much power will be granted to the human rights body in enforcing the principles. To make matters even more ambiguous, the Charter validates a long-held Asean principle that is the root cause of the organisation's ineptitude in dealing firmly with its members — "non-interference in the internal affairs of Asean member states".

This unmistakably means that its adoption will not resolve one major problem that has constantly haunted Asean members over the years: How to deal with a fellow member country — Myanmar — whose regime continues to act in wanton defiance of basic principles of human rights.

In fact, in the long run the Charter potentially poses a whole set of problems for Asean. For instance, it will be an embarrassment for an organisation that includes human rights principles in its most sacred document but at the same time has a member in absolute violation of those principles. And it will be more embarrassing if the organisation is unable to sanction that particular member for its behaviour.

There is no indication that Myanmar's junta has any intention to change its course in the near future and restore democracy. In fact, when the regime was in the process of ratifying the Charter earlier this year it was carrying on with its repression by rounding up political activists and sending them to jail without due process.

Without any serious effort to make amendments to it, the Charter will fail to make Asean a more credible and effective grouping, not just in dealing with a host of internal issues but also in shaping the emerging East Asian architecture along with the three major powers of China, India and Japan. Jusuf Wanandi of CSIS Jakarta argues that an effective cooperation to maintain peace, stability and economic dynamism in the East Asian region would also have to get the United States on board.

But Myanmar has always been the sticking point in US-Asean relations. If Asean continues to fail to deal with Myanmar effectively then US-Asean relations may not move to the next level in the new Obama administration — which is supported by a Democratic Congress.

And as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton might have unabashed empathy toward Aung San Suu Kyi which could influence her stance on Asean. Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda has conceded that the Charter is "not a perfect document" and that it is "always open to amendment". One thing that can be done immediately, while waiting for the right moment to initiate amendments to the Charter, is to make sure that the Human Rights Commission will have enough power to enforce the Charter's rules and principles, including providing recommendations for sanction or expulsion.

What the Indonesian House of Representatives did by inserting an addendum to the Charter ratification law which stipulates that the Charter has to reflect the "ideals of Asean" — including the improvement and protection of human rights through an effective Asean human rights body, the institution of sanctions, including freezing of membership in cases of serious noncompliance and obstruction of the charter by members — was undoubtedly laudable.

But that was not enough. The Indonesian government needs to step up to the plate and provide strong leadership, without which it will be virtually impossible for Asean to produce a human rights body that is equipped with sufficient power to be effective.

Indonesia is Asean's indispensable power, not just as the largest member country but also as the freest and most stable democracy.

And with such power comes responsibility. Indonesia should use its influence to spread — and should not be ashamed to do so — democratic virtues throughout Asean and more importantly, to convince fellow members to break away from the so-called "constructive engagement" principle which has time and time again proved to be absolutely ineffectual in dealing with the unsavoury junta in Myanmar.

The geopolitical considerations — mainly to prevent China and India from exerting its influence in Myanmar — that drove Asean to admit Myanmar in 1997 do not hold up anymore. China — and to a certain extent, India — have been dominant powers in Myanmar anyway.

Standing up to Myanmar, or even expelling it from Asean, would not change the equation. True, a number of Asean members have commercial interests in Myanmar which oftentimes make it difficult to push the Association to take a hard-nosed stance on Myanmar. But that doesn't mean Indonesia has to go with the flow all the time.

When Myanmar was admitted into Asean 1997, Indonesia was still under the authoritarian rule of Soeharto. Since it is now a country that proudly calls itself the world's third largest democracy its continued silence on its neighbour, Myanmar, is utterly unacceptable.

The writer is US Congressional Fellow 2002-2003.

The Jakarta Post/ANN

Brunei Identifies 3,000ha Of Land For Padi Cultivation

Brunei Identifies 3,000ha Of Land For Padi Cultivation
By Sonia K.

Bandar Seri Begawan - The Department of Agriculture has identified low lands that have potential to be developed into large-scale padi fields such as a 1000ha field in Piasau Piasau, 1000ha in Limau Manis and 1000ha in Labi Baru.

According to rice production trends from the year 1998-2007, the local rice production has increased yearly with 982.9 metric tonnes (mt) of rice produced last year in fields throughout the country.
Following the programme to increase padi production, Brunei's short-term target for 2010 is to increase local rice production to 20 per cent of the country's self-sufficiency rate. However, by 2015, the country is targeting to increase local rice production to the level of 60 per cent.

These plans were revealed during His Royal Highness Prince Hj Al-Muhtadee Billah, the Crown Prince and Senior Minister at the Prime Minister's Office working visit yesterday to the padi plantation area in Kampong Wasan.

The Agricultural Department under the Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources provided information that showed critical factors that promise the increase in local rice production have

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been identified and can be achieved through opening new padi fields, improving infrastructure of the fields and by using high yielding varieties of padi that are not photoperiod-sensitive.
High yield varieties of padi have been arranged for the padi field in the Brunei-Muara, Belait and Temburong Districts. This is estimated to cost $50million.

In the Tutong District, planting local rice such as Pusu, Bario and Adan will be continued.

In addition to efforts on improving the agronomy field businesses, developing and improving farmers and their workers' abilities, the establishment of a Rice Research Centre as well as improvements in plantation technology will be continued.

According to statistics from the Agriculture Department, in 2007, the quantity of rice needed for the residents of Brunei. Darussalam was 31,242mt, which was estimated to have been worth B$37.05 million.

The total usage per capita is estimated at 80.1kg per person every year.

Currently, the production of local rice at 982.9mt is only 3.15 per cent self-sufficient and is estimated to be worth B$2.86 million. Currently, the total number of farmers working in all four districts is 1,233 and the total farm area is 1,354ha.

This means that the average production a hectare is 0 .7mt/ha.

A huge quantity of rice needed for Brunei's consumption is imported — 29,252mt worth $34.19 million.

The total farming area of Wasan and Bebuloh is 310.5ha with 257 farmers. These fields produce 224mt of rice.

In the Tutong District, most of the padi fields are located in Mukim Rambai. It covers an area of 191.57ha and has 273 farmers. Last season the fields produced 149.7mt of rice.

The Belait District currently has the largest padi field in Brunei covering an area of 469.1ha. It has 349 farmers and it produced 344.7mt of rice for the country's consumption.

Temburong District has padi fields located in LekiunPerdayan, Senukoh and Selapon covering 382.4ha. The fields have a total of 354 farmers and produced 264.5mt of rice last season.

According to M1PR, the development of infrastructure needs to be improved. Other areas that need improvement to boost rice production include agronomy field management, farmers' skills, agricultural staff, the establishment of Rice Research Centre, as well as the improvement of estate technology and "Lepastuai".

The implementation target for the rice production development programme is to boost the production to 20 per cent, which is 6,000mt of rice from 2,783ha by the year 2010 and to improve production to 60 per cent by 2015.

The implementation plan has two aspects, infrastructure at the present area and the variety exchange of the proposed fields.

The infrastructure development will begin in 2009 and is expected to end in mid-2010 and the variety exchange will be implemented after the cultivation season of 2008/2009, which is mid-2009 until mid-2010. -- Courtesy of Borneo Bulletin

Related News: 2010 Plan Target: 20 Per Cent Increase In Rice Production

2010 plan target: 20 per cent increase in rice production

Published on The Brunei Times (http://www.bt.com.bn/en)
2010 plan target: 20 per cent increase in rice production


Working visit: HRH Prince Haji Al-Muhtadee Billah (L), the Crown Prince and Senior Minister at the Prime Minister's Office, surveying the Wasan project during his working visit to the rice fields yesterday. Picture:BT/ Saifulizam
Syazwan Sadikin
BRUNEI-MUARA

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

BRUNEI is targeting a 20 per cent, equivalent to a 6000 metric ton increase of local rice production by 2010 for its short-term plan and a 60 per cent (equivalent to 18,000 metric tonnes) increase by 2015 for its medium-term plan towards self-sufficiency in the rice production.

The plans were unveiled during a presentation on rice production projects for His Royal Highness Prince Haji Al-Muhtadee Billah, the Crown Prince and Senior Minister at the Prime Minister's Office, during his working visit to the Agriculture Department yesterday.

Among the areas of improvement which were highlighted during the presentation for the Brunei-Muara, Belait and Temburong rice field include new rice fields, enhancing the rice field infrastructure and introducing high yielding variety (HYV) while not relying on photo period-sensitive rice-type.

The costs of implementing the improvements and introducing the high yielding variety are expected to be $50 million.

In Tutong, local rice — pusu, bario and adan — will continue to be the main production due to the small size of the field, lack of adequate water supply and to avoid contamination of drinking water by chemicals used in farming.

To achieve the output in Brunei, more land will come under rice cultivation.

The target to achieve 20 per cent increase by 2010 will see 2,783 hectare allotted for rice production while 5,380 hectare to achieve the 60 per cent target by 2015.

The Agriculture Department has identified three low land areas which have the potential to be developed widely, among them were 1,000 hectare of Piasau-Piasau, Limau Manis and Labi Baru. Currently, the department is conducting research on each of the new areas.

Other factors which are being looked into include enhancing the agronomy field management, skills of the workforce and staff at agriculture, the establishment of the Rice Research Centre as well as improvement of the post-farming and farming technology.

The short-term plan is scheduled to commence in 2009 and is estimated to completed in 2010 while the change of variety will begin after the 2008/2009 sowing season, during the fall of 2009 until mid-2010.

Meanwhile, the medium-term plan on improving the infrastructure of the new areas will commence as early as 2009 and is expected to be completed by 2010.

With adequate irrigation and drainage system, the plans for planting the HYV twice a year will commence as early 2011.

A majority of Brunei's rice is imported, about 29,252 metric tonne (96.7 per cent) of the personal use costing at about $34.19 million.

According to the 2007 statistics, the total of the rice needed for the population of Brunei is 31,242 metric tonnes, costing an estimated $37.05 million.

The total usage per capita is estimated at 80.1kg each person per year.

The Brunei Times

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

DTE's 10-year strategic plan

DTE's 10-year strategic plan

QISTINA RANGGA
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

DEPARTMENT of Technical Education (DTE) celebrated its 15th year anniversary yesterday, launching its "10 Years Strategic Plan 2008-2017" book which aims at sustaining the country's socio-economic and promoting human resource development through its technical and vocational education services.

Bagging eight milestones already, the department continues to hone Brunei Vision 2035 in preparing the nation's youth for employment and achievement in a world that is increasingly competitive and knowledge-based, as stated in the 15-page book.

Speaking at the ceremony, Acting Director of DTE, Ibrahim Hj Abd Rahman said that "among the major changes in vocational and technical education (VTE) is the comprehensive and quality 3-tier qualification for the technical education system, encompassing skills training, technologist and professional training relevant to the skilled human resource needs of the country".

Outlined in the "10-year Strategic Plan" book are four strategic goals: : to enhance management and leadership skills, to produce quality learning and teaching, to increase the capacity of the department by 2012, and to produce quality and competitive human resource.

Under these goals, four new VTIs (Vocational and Technical Institutes) and one polytechnic are expected to be established while introducing a number of new programmes such as Arts, Graphic Design, Multimedia Technology and Mechatronics Engineering.

Indicated in the strategic plan as well are key performance indicators (KPIs) which are used to help the department define and measure progress toward its goals.

Several strategies in the strategic plan book have already been accomplished this year such as the workshop on "Project Education Polytechnic International Singapore Development" and officials visits to Singapore and Malaysia to share on best practices in VTE.

In June next year, DTE will be organising the second FRESH International Conference carrying with it the theme "Excellence in Technical Education", said Ibrahim.

He urged the department to share the responsibilities which have been entrusted with full-commitment, preparedness and honest dedication so that the objectives of the 10-year strategic plan are met.

DTE was established in early 1993 as one of the departments within the Ministry of Education (MoE). Among the many milestones achieved by the department were the recent upgrading of Institut Teknologi Brunei (ITB) as the third national's university and the placement of Pengiran Anak Puteri Rashidah Nursing College under Universiti Brunei Darussalam.

Since 1994 up until June 2008, a total of 15,144 graduates were awarded with Higher National Diploma, National Diploma, Pre-National Diploma and certificates in various fields by the Technical and Vocational Council.

The Brunei Times

Health Ministry 'facing shortage of medicines'

Health Ministry 'facing shortage of medicines'


Mutual cooperation: Deputy Minister of Health Pehin Dato Paduka Haji Hazair (L), talking with Dr Jane Robertson, World Health Organisation Consultant, during the ceremony at the Royal Brunei Polo and Riding Club, Jerudong.Picture: BT/ Saifulizam
UBAIDILLAH MASLI
BRUNEI-MUARA

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Some imports are of low quality and don't comply with world standards

THE Ministry of Health (MoH) is facing a shortage of medicines, the deputy health minister said yesterday.

"Despite all the efforts made by the MoH through the Department of Pharmaceutical Services to ensure continuous and (sufficient) supply and stock of drugs and medicines, drug supplies are occasionally affected due to multi-faceted reasons," said Pehin Orang Kaya Pekerma Laila Diraja Dato Paduka Hj Hazair Hj Abdullah.

The deputy minister highlighted that among the reasons were problems with acquiring medicines from abroad. He said that pharmaceutical procurement based on open international tenders resulted in a large number of offers, and although they might be reasonably priced, they may be of low quality.

The deputy minister was speaking during the opening ceremony of the "Training Course on the Principles of Pharmacoeconomics and Its more Effective Application — Introductory and Intermediate Level," which was held at the Royal Berkshire restaurant of the Jerudong Polo and Riding Club.

He said that products delivered sometimes did not comply with the international standards of efficacy, quality and safety.

Other factors included delays in deliveries with new and unknown suppliers, manufacturing problems, supply and demand imbalance and problems with raw materials. The improper stock-taking and distribution of medicine were other important reasons which needed to be considered.

Pehin Dato Hj Hazair announced that a total of $60 million, including a supplementary budget of $30 million, has been allocated for the purchase of medicines in the 2008-2009 period, which is an increase of $16 million compared with last year's budget. In 2007, a total of 594 Named Patient Basis Prescriptions cost the government more than $4.2 million, according to records from Ripas Hospital. The newly introduced Named Patient Basis Prescriptions is a scheme which allows doctors to subscribe a drug outside the National Standard Drug List (NSDL), which entails 825 different chemical entities comprising 1,287 different preparations.

The deputy minister suggested that in order to overcome this challenge in public health, a sound strategy needs to be implemented and embedded with all the principles and a framework of ethical and rational use of medicines. He urged health professionals to be "sensitised" to the issue non-patient compliance and the patient's possible lack of understanding of proper medicinal usage, stating that professionals should be trained.

The six-day course is aimed at developing participants' knowledge and enhancing their skills in evidence-based medicine to assist them in formulary and purchasing decisions of medicines. These aspects must be taken care of in a dedicated manner to ensure success of education in promoting good use of medicines.

The Brunei Times

Auto crisis worsens as global sales tumble

Auto crisis worsens as global sales tumble


Under the hood: Employees work at an assembly line of Hyundai Motor in Ulsan, southeast of Seoul in this undated photograph released by Hyundai Motor yesterday. Picture: Reuters
PARIS

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

AUTOMAKERS yesterday reported tumbling sales across Europe and Asia, taking fresh hits in the fight against plunging consumer confidence on the world's car lots.

"The financial crisis and the weaker economy is now hitting the auto market with full force," said Bertil Molden, chief executive of Swedish industry body Bil Sweden.

Spanish car sales nearly halved in November, the biggest fall in nearly 16 years and the seventh straight month of decline, as credit restrictions and soaring unemployment took their toll.

New car registrations in Sweden, home to struggling carmakers Volvo and Saab, nosedived by 36 per cent to 17,616 units in November, the largest monthly fall since 1993, according to industry data.

The Swedish government said it was talking to Saab and Volvo about loan guarantees but no specific sum had been discussed.

The Financial Times reported that GM and Ford had approached the Swedish government about financial aid "in anticipation of selling" their subsidiaries.

In France, headline sales at PSA fell over 17 per cent, with the Peugeot marque slumping by nearly 20 per cent and Citroen down 14.0 per cent.

Japan's overall car sales in November slid 18.2 per cent from a year ago, helping to push down platinum prices by seven per cent, while in South Korea, combined sales of domestic automakers, including Hyundai Motor Co, fell 8.6 per cent. Automakers worldwide are seeking help from governments to survive savage cutbacks in consumer spending and shift unsold cars.

In Europe, where car sales are already down 5.4 per cent in the first 10 months of the year according to industry association ACEA, manufacturers have announced production cuts and extended site closures in the fourth quarter to cope with the downturn.

Spain's government last week budgeted €800 million for its struggling car industry amid fears the sector could lose 50,000 jobs.

Spanish households have cut back spending on fears their economy will enter recession by year end and stay there much of 2009 as unemployment rises above 15 per cent.

The US Big Three car firms Ford, Chrysler and GM have called for aid from the Federal government to help them survive, while the European Commission has pledged to help the car industry. Reuters

World stocks, oil prices fall after grim economic data

World stocks, oil prices fall after grim economic data


LONDON

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

WORLD stocks ended six consecutive days of gains yesterday and oil prices tumbled, boosting flows into the low-yielding yen as data showing slumping manufacturing activity in China and Europe fanned concerns over the economy.

US Treasury prices rose across the board, driving the benchmark 10-year yield to a fresh five-decade low as investors flocked to safe and liquid government bonds.

A closely-watched survey showed eurozone manufacturing activity sank to a level not seen in its 11-year history in November. The grim reading reinforced expectations the European Central Bank would cut interest rates later this week to 2.5 per cent or even lower.

A similar survey from China also showed the manufacturing sector deteriorated.

"The data is just so terribly poor that it's going to be difficult for any kind of period of sustained uptrend in confidence," said Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at BTM UFJ.

"Until we're through the deterioration in the data then the likelihood is that risk aversion will remain elevated and we'll see renewed interest in lower-yielding currencies."

The MSCI world equity index fell 1.1 per cent after rising 12 per cent last week.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares fell three per cent following a gain of more than 13 per cent last week, with banks and mining companies leading the way down.

Equity markets had perked up last week after the US government rescued banking giant Citigroup, the Federal Reserve said it would buy up to US$800 billion of mortgage-related and consumer debt and China cut interest rates.

Trading was subdued due to the US Thanksgiving holiday last week, but fund tracker EPFR Global said there were sizeable inflows into European equity funds in the week.

Oil dropped by more than five per cent to US$51.57 a barrel after producer cartel Opec decided to delay a decision on a third supply cut until its next meeting later in December, as economic woes squeeze oil demand.

The low-yielding yen rose around 1.8 per cent to ¥93.78, only a few yen away from the level where finance chiefs from the Group of Seven issued a warning about excessive yen strength in October.

The yuan also tumbled against the US dollar.

Reuters

Economic slump hits world industry

Economic slump hits world industry


The writing's on the wall: A cyclist rides past a store near Manchester, northern England. Global industry activity has slumped, forcing even retailers to call in administrators. Picture: Reuters
LONDON/BEIJING

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

EUROPEAN and Chinese industry activity slumped in November, Japanese officials said their economy was slowing rapidly and eurozone finance ministers gathered yesterday to discuss plans to curb recession.

The Bank of Japan called an emergency meeting for today to find ways to help corporate finance. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa warned access to funding was becoming increasingly tough for Japanese firms, to an extent comparable with a credit crunch a decade ago.

"Sluggishness in economic activity has increased rapidly. Overseas economies are experiencing the same kind of rapid change," Shirakawa said of the broader Japanese economy.

Eurozone manufacturing activity sank to a record low in November and the outlook was equally grim.

The Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector slumped to 35.6 in November, a low not seen in the survey's 11-year history and way below the 50 mark that separates expansions from contraction.

"The extremely weak ... survey intensifies fears that the eurozone's recession will be deep and prolonged," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.

The eurozone was officially declared in recession this month following a second quarterly contraction in economic output. Analysts do not see the economy growing again until the third quarter next year and then only marginally.

The financial crisis that began with a US housing market collapse last year and escalated into a full-blown global downturn has already knocked several big economies into recession, including the eurozone. Most economists believe the United States and Britain will soon follow.

Similar surveys from China showed its manufacturing industry slumped in November as new orders tumbled, showing the world's fourth-largest economy being sucked deeper into the global maelstrom.

Japan's economy minister was gloomier even than Shirakawa.

"We are moving to the next phase of shrinking consumption some call it deflation production going down and prices going down," Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano told the Financial Times in an interview published yesterday.

Central banks in Britain, the eurozone, Australia and New Zealand are expected to cut borrowing costs sharply this week in response to the crisis. Politicians are also poised to weigh in.

Eurozone finance ministers meet later to pick over a menu of economic measures drawn up by the European Commission, which could inject up to €200 billion (US$258.8 billion) of extra government spending, although that figure includes national schemes already announced.

Agreement may prove elusive. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told her party yesterday the government, which has already unveiled a €32-billion plan, would not take part in a "senseless" competition to spend billions more.

Stocks slid, with investors caught between aggressive steps by central banks and grim economic data.

European shares shed three per cent and stock futures pointed to a lower start on Wall Street ahead of US manufacturing data, which are also forecast to offer up a bleak reading.

Inflation in Thailand, South Korea and Australia plunged in November in synch with a global retreat, giving central banks room to slash interest rates further to soften the blow from the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

Expectations for more rate cuts in Britain were underlined by the UK's PMI index showing manufacturing shrank at a record pace in November after a collapse in new orders.

Australia's central bank is expected to slash its benchmark rate by at least 75 basis points today on top of 200 basis points of cuts since early September, with a bigger move seen as a strong possibility.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England deliver their verdicts on Thursday.

Hopes the consumer may ride to the rescue looked optimistic.

German retail sales rose slightly in October, helping to offset the impact of slackening exports, but with unemployment expected to rise, the outlook for next year is cloudy.

Sales, including turnover at gas stations and cars, rose by 0.4 per cent, Bundesbank data showed. A narrower measure excluding gas stations and auto sales had earlier shown a decline of 1.6 per cent on the month.

In the US, shoppers tried to take advantage of rock-bottom sales prices over the holiday weekend, traditionally the start of the busiest period of the year for US retailers. But the weekend of activity does not necessarily augur well for retailers' bottom line. Reuters

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