ADB sees Asia recovery in 12 to 18 months
NEW DELHI
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
China, India seen to drive Asia growth, a renewed Asia will drive global growth
ASIA will start to recover from the global downturn in a year to a year and a half and some of its economies have room for fiscal stimulus to boost consumption, a top official at the Asian Development Bank said.
Rajat Nag, managing director general at the ADB, told Reuters in an interview yesterday that "next year would be a difficult year for Asia, but there is no need to be unduly pessimistic.
"The recovery in the US and Europe will certainly take time but in Asia we think it's about four to six quarters (12 to 18 months) that we should start seeing it coming back up again," Nag said.
ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said earlier this month aggregate economic growth for developing Asia would decline by 1.5 percentage points this year from a record 9.0 per cent in 2007 and decelerate a further 0.5 or 1.0 per cent next year.
Nag said India would grow 7.8 per cent this calendar year and 6.3 to 6.5 per cent next year, well below the nine per cent annual rate seen in the past few years.
"But at the same time it's very important to remember that China and India will grow at fairly healthy clips.
"As a matter of fact, China and India will drive Asia's growth and Asia will drive global growth," he said.
Asia's financial sector was resilient, but he warned the financial crisis could see significant lay-offs in India.
Group of 20 leaders from major industrialised and developing nations called at the weekend for fiscal stimulus measures, either tax cuts or government spending, to boost the world economy and Nag said a coordinated response was appropriate.
"Coordinated does not mean identical and it cannot be," he said. "But overall Asia has room for greater fiscal stimulation. We can certainly push up our domestic consumption."
Beijing launched a stimulus package worth nearly US$600 billion ($900 billion) earlier this month which Nag said would boost not just China's economy but also Asia and the world.
But India had little room for fiscal stimulus, with a state and federal fiscal deficit of seven per cent, and it should instead implement projects which had already been approved, he said.
Malaysia and Singapore had room for fiscal stimulus but Vietnam and Pakistan didn't, while Indonesia had some scope.
He ruled out a sovereign bond issue by India to raise funds.
"At this time of a crisis it's probably prudent not to try something new. We've got enough options on the menu, let's just implement those."
The ADB stood ready to provide financing needs for infrastructure projects in the region but was also seeking to raise its capital, he said.
It has said it urgently needs a capital increase from its 67 member states to cope with rising demand for loans due to the financial crisis, and this should happen at the latest by 2010.
"We will be as responsive as the situation demands because it will vary from country to country," Nag said.
"But at the same time we are also talking with our shareholders that we need a capital increase to provide more assistance."
Reuters
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Approval Made Easy With Online System
Approval Made Easy With Online System
By Syafiq Affendy
Courtesy of Brudirect
18 November 2008
Civil Servants are an important element in the nation's success. The human resource is seen as the pulse of the Civil Service sector, which has a long-term value as a generator, Connector, mover and coordinator towards services and other assets in providing a more efficient, effective and customer friendly services.
The Permanent Secretary at the Prime Minister's Office, Pengiran Dato Paduka Haji Ismail bin Pg Hj Mohamed, said this at the Tutong District Level 15th Civil Service Day celebration, held at Tutong Community Hall, in the Tutong District.
"Brunei's Civil Service has changed drastically. As the world has seen swift changes, global competitiveness has brought bigger challenges for every sector in the county, including the private sector," he said.
Pg Dato Paduka Hj Ismail recalled HRH the Crown Prince's sabda about efforts to establish an online business license application system, which the Permanent Secretary said has gone through the first phase and the contract signed at the end of October this year.
"The project will create 'business process engineering, BPR' or identifying the processes of each application, as well as agencies involved, and consider suggestions to make the system better towards customer friendliness."
He added that with this project, entrepreneurs or business applicants no longer need to go from one office to another seeking for approval. Furthermore, the application process will be shortened especially after the second phase is completed.
"It is one of the government's initiatives under e-Government to increase the use of Info Communications Technology in increasing the quality of efficient and effective civil service. Since the introduction of e-Government approximately eight years ago, a total of 97 projects worth of a total of $222.5 million have been completed while 35 projects worth 5143 million are currently in progress," he said.
He also said that introducing the new services and technology lead to increasing the quality of administration and enhancing the civil services.
The attendees were also reminded that another aspect which is demanded in civil services is integrity, which is commonly related to others such as trustworthiness, honesty, and also to give priority to the public without taking advantage of any situation. The ceremony was also attended by Tutong District Officer. Awg Hj Idris bin Hj Md Ali, who led the oath-taking of more than 50 civil servants from various departments. Certificates to commemorate retiring civil servants were presented by the guest of honor, Permanent Secretary- at the Prime Minister's Office, Pengiran Dato Paduka Haji Ismail.
The guest of honor later viewed the exhibits by various government departments.
By Syafiq Affendy
Courtesy of Brudirect
18 November 2008
Civil Servants are an important element in the nation's success. The human resource is seen as the pulse of the Civil Service sector, which has a long-term value as a generator, Connector, mover and coordinator towards services and other assets in providing a more efficient, effective and customer friendly services.
The Permanent Secretary at the Prime Minister's Office, Pengiran Dato Paduka Haji Ismail bin Pg Hj Mohamed, said this at the Tutong District Level 15th Civil Service Day celebration, held at Tutong Community Hall, in the Tutong District.
"Brunei's Civil Service has changed drastically. As the world has seen swift changes, global competitiveness has brought bigger challenges for every sector in the county, including the private sector," he said.
Pg Dato Paduka Hj Ismail recalled HRH the Crown Prince's sabda about efforts to establish an online business license application system, which the Permanent Secretary said has gone through the first phase and the contract signed at the end of October this year.
"The project will create 'business process engineering, BPR' or identifying the processes of each application, as well as agencies involved, and consider suggestions to make the system better towards customer friendliness."
He added that with this project, entrepreneurs or business applicants no longer need to go from one office to another seeking for approval. Furthermore, the application process will be shortened especially after the second phase is completed.
"It is one of the government's initiatives under e-Government to increase the use of Info Communications Technology in increasing the quality of efficient and effective civil service. Since the introduction of e-Government approximately eight years ago, a total of 97 projects worth of a total of $222.5 million have been completed while 35 projects worth 5143 million are currently in progress," he said.
He also said that introducing the new services and technology lead to increasing the quality of administration and enhancing the civil services.
The attendees were also reminded that another aspect which is demanded in civil services is integrity, which is commonly related to others such as trustworthiness, honesty, and also to give priority to the public without taking advantage of any situation. The ceremony was also attended by Tutong District Officer. Awg Hj Idris bin Hj Md Ali, who led the oath-taking of more than 50 civil servants from various departments. Certificates to commemorate retiring civil servants were presented by the guest of honor, Permanent Secretary- at the Prime Minister's Office, Pengiran Dato Paduka Haji Ismail.
The guest of honor later viewed the exhibits by various government departments.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
World leaders meet in Washington as crisis worsens
Published on The Brunei Times (http://www.bt.com.bn/en)
World leaders meet in Washington as crisis worsens
NEW YORK/LONDON
Saturday, November 15, 2008
WORLD leaders are meeting in Washington today to discuss ways to tackle a global economic crisis that has plunged much of Europe into its first recession since the euro currency was formed.
Leaders of the world's 20 richest nations are not expected to make any breakthroughs at the meeting, given the absence of US President-elect Barack Obama, whose involvement will be key to any global initiatives.
The crisis continues to wreak havoc on the world's major economies, with official data showing the 15-nation eurozone economy had shrunk by 0.2 per cent for the second quarter in a row, meaning it technically is in recession.
The US is probably already in recession, most economists agree, but official data showing that will not come out until January. Signs for the US economy worsened as retail sales fell a record 2.8 per cent in October, the biggest decline since comparable numbers were first calculated in 1992.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said central banks worldwide were ready to do more to support faltering growth and European Central Bank policymakers signalled further interest rates were likely. "Policymakers will remain in close contact, monitor developments closely, and stand ready to take additional steps should conditions warrant," he said in remarks prepared for delivery to an ECB conference in Frankfurt.
With Europe, as well as parts of Asia and North America, suffering, leaders of the G20 developed and emerging countries will try to find ways to ensure the crisis is not repeated.
But agreement among the G20, which represents 85 per cent of the world's economy and two-thirds of its population, is unlikely over whether more regulation of markets can protect consumers, savers and companies from the fall-out.
Washington says there should be no return to greater state control of financial markets. Much of Europe says without more regulation, a repeat of the last year's turmoil is inevitable.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for more coordinated measures to spur economic growth, a policy area where there may be more consensus at the summit.
European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso said he hoped to draw more emerging economies into global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, saying Europeans were ready to lower their representation to make more room for countries such as China. "There is an openness to accommodate an increased role of the emerging economies," the International Herald Tribune quoted Barroso as saying.
Work on the crisis should not stop in Washington, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said. "I fully support the idea to hold the next summit after Washington without delays and fast enough."
Some in the West hope countries with large reserves, notably in the Gulf, will help fund the IMF, which has offered loans to economies labouring under heavy debts.
Before the eurozone reported it was in a recession, Germany, Spain and Italy all said their economies shrank in the third quarter.
France escaped, reporting growth of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter but analysts said it was a semantic debate.
In Asia, Hong Kong became the second Asian economy after trading rival Singapore to tip into recession as exports were hit in the third quarter by weakening global demand and consumers were jolted by falling asset prices. Reuters
World leaders meet in Washington as crisis worsens
NEW YORK/LONDON
Saturday, November 15, 2008
WORLD leaders are meeting in Washington today to discuss ways to tackle a global economic crisis that has plunged much of Europe into its first recession since the euro currency was formed.
Leaders of the world's 20 richest nations are not expected to make any breakthroughs at the meeting, given the absence of US President-elect Barack Obama, whose involvement will be key to any global initiatives.
The crisis continues to wreak havoc on the world's major economies, with official data showing the 15-nation eurozone economy had shrunk by 0.2 per cent for the second quarter in a row, meaning it technically is in recession.
The US is probably already in recession, most economists agree, but official data showing that will not come out until January. Signs for the US economy worsened as retail sales fell a record 2.8 per cent in October, the biggest decline since comparable numbers were first calculated in 1992.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said central banks worldwide were ready to do more to support faltering growth and European Central Bank policymakers signalled further interest rates were likely. "Policymakers will remain in close contact, monitor developments closely, and stand ready to take additional steps should conditions warrant," he said in remarks prepared for delivery to an ECB conference in Frankfurt.
With Europe, as well as parts of Asia and North America, suffering, leaders of the G20 developed and emerging countries will try to find ways to ensure the crisis is not repeated.
But agreement among the G20, which represents 85 per cent of the world's economy and two-thirds of its population, is unlikely over whether more regulation of markets can protect consumers, savers and companies from the fall-out.
Washington says there should be no return to greater state control of financial markets. Much of Europe says without more regulation, a repeat of the last year's turmoil is inevitable.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for more coordinated measures to spur economic growth, a policy area where there may be more consensus at the summit.
European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso said he hoped to draw more emerging economies into global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, saying Europeans were ready to lower their representation to make more room for countries such as China. "There is an openness to accommodate an increased role of the emerging economies," the International Herald Tribune quoted Barroso as saying.
Work on the crisis should not stop in Washington, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said. "I fully support the idea to hold the next summit after Washington without delays and fast enough."
Some in the West hope countries with large reserves, notably in the Gulf, will help fund the IMF, which has offered loans to economies labouring under heavy debts.
Before the eurozone reported it was in a recession, Germany, Spain and Italy all said their economies shrank in the third quarter.
France escaped, reporting growth of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter but analysts said it was a semantic debate.
In Asia, Hong Kong became the second Asian economy after trading rival Singapore to tip into recession as exports were hit in the third quarter by weakening global demand and consumers were jolted by falling asset prices. Reuters
Mixed reaction from parents to SPN21 briefing by Ministry
Mixed reaction from parents to SPN21 briefing by Ministry
Trying to understand: Parents attending during the SPN21 talk by the Ministry of Education held at the Sekolah Menengah Puteri Hjh Masna, Lambak Kanan. Picture: BT/Zamri Zainal
HANA ROSLAN
BRUNEI-MUARA
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Some embrace the system, others are disgruntled and feel left in the dark
WITH the arrival of the National Educational System for the 21st century (SPN21) just two months away, the briefing organised by the Ministry of Education (MOE) for parents who have children in the secondary level has struck a chord both ways.
Some parents embraced the system with open arms, but others were just left disgruntled and in the dark.
A 36-year old man working in the private sector, who opted for anonymity,stated that he was in the briefing for the whole morning and was still puzzled.
"This was supposed to be a briefing on the SPN21, but I just wasted my time and came empty-handed towards the end of the day because I feel I have yet to fully understand how the system works," he said.
He said everything was badly organised and that there should have been some booklets or clear guidelines that outline the plans for the new system so the parents will at least be able to comprehend what was actually being said.
He also stated that the change was so drastic and added how it was not thought out thoroughly .
"It is making me question whether the teachers themselves are ready for this change or not. It is easy to be excited about a new system when you are up there, but when you are down here with the teachers and parents, we are the ones who are responsible for our children," he said.
He stated that the challenges will be difficult but can be ironed out if only there was more awareness and information.
A mother of five children in her late thirties working in the government sector also complained of the lack of transparency that occurred during the briefing.
"I felt that all the information was so incomplete. I have some idea of the new syllabus but the way it was presented, the whole idea, was so obscure that i hope this is not the last time as I would like to know about the system in more depth and detail," she said.
She also said that she hoped that the authorities could look into giving out samples of the SPN21 test format soon so that she will be well-informed about how the assessment system works.
"How can I help steer my child towards the right preparations when even I don't have a clue as to what kind of approach will be taken in the new syllabus?," she said.
Julaimah Jumat a mother of six, has faith in the new system and the information that has been passed on, as she knows the new innovative system will be able to help her child who she admits, is a slow learner.
She stated that the new system will be able to assess students individually and this requires parents to converse with teachers constantly in hearing about their progress.
She said that this system will be able to manifest some slow learning students that parents might not be able to be comfortable admitting to it.
"This should not matter. We want what is best for a children. Maybe it's about time to make a change,"she said.
She added that the new system will be a pinnacle of change compared to the current one and requests for more teacher-parent interaction to monitor children's progress.
A uniformed personnel by the name of Hjh Zainah Hj Mahmud and also a mother to a secondary one student said that she also embraces the changes positively as it brings a better and more different level to the standards of education.
She stated that her child will be more motivated in her academic endeavours and will definitely be working with the teachers to ensure that her child will rise up and be ready for the challenges that are to come. The Brunei Times
Trying to understand: Parents attending during the SPN21 talk by the Ministry of Education held at the Sekolah Menengah Puteri Hjh Masna, Lambak Kanan. Picture: BT/Zamri Zainal
HANA ROSLAN
BRUNEI-MUARA
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Some embrace the system, others are disgruntled and feel left in the dark
WITH the arrival of the National Educational System for the 21st century (SPN21) just two months away, the briefing organised by the Ministry of Education (MOE) for parents who have children in the secondary level has struck a chord both ways.
Some parents embraced the system with open arms, but others were just left disgruntled and in the dark.
A 36-year old man working in the private sector, who opted for anonymity,stated that he was in the briefing for the whole morning and was still puzzled.
"This was supposed to be a briefing on the SPN21, but I just wasted my time and came empty-handed towards the end of the day because I feel I have yet to fully understand how the system works," he said.
He said everything was badly organised and that there should have been some booklets or clear guidelines that outline the plans for the new system so the parents will at least be able to comprehend what was actually being said.
He also stated that the change was so drastic and added how it was not thought out thoroughly .
"It is making me question whether the teachers themselves are ready for this change or not. It is easy to be excited about a new system when you are up there, but when you are down here with the teachers and parents, we are the ones who are responsible for our children," he said.
He stated that the challenges will be difficult but can be ironed out if only there was more awareness and information.
A mother of five children in her late thirties working in the government sector also complained of the lack of transparency that occurred during the briefing.
"I felt that all the information was so incomplete. I have some idea of the new syllabus but the way it was presented, the whole idea, was so obscure that i hope this is not the last time as I would like to know about the system in more depth and detail," she said.
She also said that she hoped that the authorities could look into giving out samples of the SPN21 test format soon so that she will be well-informed about how the assessment system works.
"How can I help steer my child towards the right preparations when even I don't have a clue as to what kind of approach will be taken in the new syllabus?," she said.
Julaimah Jumat a mother of six, has faith in the new system and the information that has been passed on, as she knows the new innovative system will be able to help her child who she admits, is a slow learner.
She stated that the new system will be able to assess students individually and this requires parents to converse with teachers constantly in hearing about their progress.
She said that this system will be able to manifest some slow learning students that parents might not be able to be comfortable admitting to it.
"This should not matter. We want what is best for a children. Maybe it's about time to make a change,"she said.
She added that the new system will be a pinnacle of change compared to the current one and requests for more teacher-parent interaction to monitor children's progress.
A uniformed personnel by the name of Hjh Zainah Hj Mahmud and also a mother to a secondary one student said that she also embraces the changes positively as it brings a better and more different level to the standards of education.
She stated that her child will be more motivated in her academic endeavours and will definitely be working with the teachers to ensure that her child will rise up and be ready for the challenges that are to come. The Brunei Times
US enters realm of depression economics
US enters realm of depression economics
Going bust: A furniture store posts a "Going Out of Business" sign in a residential strip mall in Manassas, Virginia. US President-elect Barack Obama has called for urgent action to prop up the flagging US economy and stop the hemorrhage of jobs, arguing that there was not "a moment to lose". Picture: AFP
PAUL KRUGMAN
Saturday, November 15, 2008
THE economic news, in case you havent noticed, keeps getting worse. Bad as it is, however, I don't expect another Great Depression. In fact, we probably won't see the unemployment rate match its post-Depression peak of 10.7 per cent, reached in 1982 (although I wish I was sure about that).
We are already, however, well into the realm of what I call depression economics. By that I mean a state of affairs like that of the 1930s in which the usual tools of economic policy above all, the Federal Reserves ability to pump up the economy by cutting interest rates have lost all traction. When depression economics prevails, the usual rules of economic policy no longer apply: virtue becomes vice, caution is risky and prudence is folly.
To see what I'm talking about, consider the implications of the latest piece of terrible economic news: Thursday's report on new claims for unemployment insurance, which have now passed the half-million mark. Bad as this report was, viewed in isolation it might not seem catastrophic. After all, it was in the same ballpark as numbers reached during the 2001 recession and the 1990-1991 recession, both of which ended up being relatively mild by historical standards (although in each case it took a long time before the job market recovered).
But on both of these earlier occasions the standard policy response to a weak economy a cut in the federal funds rate, the interest rate most directly affected by Fed policy was still available. Today, it isn't: the effective federal funds rate (as opposed to the official target, which for technical reasons has become meaningless) has averaged less than 0.3 per cent in recent days. Basically, theres nothing left to cut.
And with no possibility of further interest rate cuts, there's nothing to stop the economy's downward momentum. Rising unemployment will lead to further cuts in consumer spending, which Best Buy warned this week has already suffered a seismic decline. Weak consumer spending will lead to cutbacks in business investment plans. And the weakening economy will lead to more job cuts, provoking a further cycle of contraction.
To pull us out of this downward spiral, the federal government will have to provide economic stimulus in the form of higher spending and greater aid to those in distress and the stimulus plan won't come soon enough or be strong enough unless politicians and economic officials are able to transcend several conventional prejudices.
One of these prejudices is the fear of red ink. In normal times, its good to worry about the budget deficit and fiscal responsibility is a virtue well need to relearn as soon as this crisis is past. When depression economics prevails, however, this virtue becomes a vice. FDR's premature attempt to balance the budget in 1937 almost destroyed the New Deal.
Another prejudice is the belief that policy should move cautiously. In normal times, this makes sense: you shouldn't make big changes in policy until its clear they're needed. Under current conditions, however, caution is risky, because big changes for the worse are already happening, and any delay in acting raises the chance of a deeper economic disaster. The policy response should be as well-crafted as possible, but time is of the essence.
Finally, in normal times modesty and prudence in policy goals are good things. Under current conditions, however, its much better to err on the side of doing too much than on the side of doing too little. The risk, if the stimulus plan turns out to be more than needed, is that the economy might overheat, leading to inflation but the Federal Reserve can always head off that threat by raising interest rates. On the other hand, if the stimulus plan is too small theres nothing the Fed can do to make up for the shortfall. So when depression economics prevails, prudence is folly.
What does all this say about economic policy in the near future? The Obama administration will almost certainly take office in the face of an economy looking even worse than it does now. Indeed, Goldman Sachs predicts that the unemployment rate, currently at 6.5 per cent, will reach 8.5 per cent by the end of next year.
All indications are that the new administration will offer a major stimulus package. My own back-of-the-envelope calculations say that the package should be huge, on the order of US$600 billion ($900 billion).
So the question becomes, will the Obama people dare to propose something on that scale?
Lets hope that the answer to that question is yes, that the new administration will indeed be that daring. For we're now in a situation where it would be very dangerous to give in to conventional notions of prudence.
NYT
Going bust: A furniture store posts a "Going Out of Business" sign in a residential strip mall in Manassas, Virginia. US President-elect Barack Obama has called for urgent action to prop up the flagging US economy and stop the hemorrhage of jobs, arguing that there was not "a moment to lose". Picture: AFP
PAUL KRUGMAN
Saturday, November 15, 2008
THE economic news, in case you havent noticed, keeps getting worse. Bad as it is, however, I don't expect another Great Depression. In fact, we probably won't see the unemployment rate match its post-Depression peak of 10.7 per cent, reached in 1982 (although I wish I was sure about that).
We are already, however, well into the realm of what I call depression economics. By that I mean a state of affairs like that of the 1930s in which the usual tools of economic policy above all, the Federal Reserves ability to pump up the economy by cutting interest rates have lost all traction. When depression economics prevails, the usual rules of economic policy no longer apply: virtue becomes vice, caution is risky and prudence is folly.
To see what I'm talking about, consider the implications of the latest piece of terrible economic news: Thursday's report on new claims for unemployment insurance, which have now passed the half-million mark. Bad as this report was, viewed in isolation it might not seem catastrophic. After all, it was in the same ballpark as numbers reached during the 2001 recession and the 1990-1991 recession, both of which ended up being relatively mild by historical standards (although in each case it took a long time before the job market recovered).
But on both of these earlier occasions the standard policy response to a weak economy a cut in the federal funds rate, the interest rate most directly affected by Fed policy was still available. Today, it isn't: the effective federal funds rate (as opposed to the official target, which for technical reasons has become meaningless) has averaged less than 0.3 per cent in recent days. Basically, theres nothing left to cut.
And with no possibility of further interest rate cuts, there's nothing to stop the economy's downward momentum. Rising unemployment will lead to further cuts in consumer spending, which Best Buy warned this week has already suffered a seismic decline. Weak consumer spending will lead to cutbacks in business investment plans. And the weakening economy will lead to more job cuts, provoking a further cycle of contraction.
To pull us out of this downward spiral, the federal government will have to provide economic stimulus in the form of higher spending and greater aid to those in distress and the stimulus plan won't come soon enough or be strong enough unless politicians and economic officials are able to transcend several conventional prejudices.
One of these prejudices is the fear of red ink. In normal times, its good to worry about the budget deficit and fiscal responsibility is a virtue well need to relearn as soon as this crisis is past. When depression economics prevails, however, this virtue becomes a vice. FDR's premature attempt to balance the budget in 1937 almost destroyed the New Deal.
Another prejudice is the belief that policy should move cautiously. In normal times, this makes sense: you shouldn't make big changes in policy until its clear they're needed. Under current conditions, however, caution is risky, because big changes for the worse are already happening, and any delay in acting raises the chance of a deeper economic disaster. The policy response should be as well-crafted as possible, but time is of the essence.
Finally, in normal times modesty and prudence in policy goals are good things. Under current conditions, however, its much better to err on the side of doing too much than on the side of doing too little. The risk, if the stimulus plan turns out to be more than needed, is that the economy might overheat, leading to inflation but the Federal Reserve can always head off that threat by raising interest rates. On the other hand, if the stimulus plan is too small theres nothing the Fed can do to make up for the shortfall. So when depression economics prevails, prudence is folly.
What does all this say about economic policy in the near future? The Obama administration will almost certainly take office in the face of an economy looking even worse than it does now. Indeed, Goldman Sachs predicts that the unemployment rate, currently at 6.5 per cent, will reach 8.5 per cent by the end of next year.
All indications are that the new administration will offer a major stimulus package. My own back-of-the-envelope calculations say that the package should be huge, on the order of US$600 billion ($900 billion).
So the question becomes, will the Obama people dare to propose something on that scale?
Lets hope that the answer to that question is yes, that the new administration will indeed be that daring. For we're now in a situation where it would be very dangerous to give in to conventional notions of prudence.
NYT
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
China posts record trade surplus despite global crisis
China posts record trade surplus despite global crisis
BEIJING
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
CHINA said yesterday its trade surplus hit a monthly all-time high of US$35.2 billion ($52.7 billion) in October, as exports remained strong despite the global economic turmoil.
The surplus, up 29.9 per cent from a year ago, reflected demand for China's exports outside the United States and Europe, but it was also the result of a marked slowdown in imports.
Experts said China's trade would soon show more clearly the impacts of the global economic woes, with export growth set to slow following reports already of many factories dependent on overseas sales facing deep difficulties.
"It is not very likely that such fast growth in the surplus will be sustained," said Qi Jingmei, a researcher with the State Information Centre, a Beijing-based government think tank.
Exports in October rose 19.2 per cent from a year ago to US$128.3 billion, compared with 21.5 per cent growth in September, according to the data from the Customs Administration. Qi highlighted the diverse markets for China's exports as one reason for the continued solid performance despite problems selling to the struggling developed markets.
"The demand from Africa, Latin America and Russia is still strong although exports to Europe weakened," Qi said.
China's state-run Xinhua news agency also gave prominence to the diversification cushion, reporting that exports to Latin America grew 52 per cent in the first nine months to US$111.5 billion.
A slowdown in import growth, rising 15.6 per cent in October from a year earlier to US$93.1 billion, was another important factor.
"Import growth fell by large margins, which made the trade surplus look high," said Li Huiyong, a Shanghai-based economist with Shenyin Wanguo Securities.
Since a large portion of China's imports are of input that get assembled and then re-exported, the trend could also signal further declines in exports in the months ahead, according to observers.
The more moderate rise in imports was also seen to reflect sharp declines in the price of oil and other commodities.
In the first 10 months, the trade surplus — long a source of friction with Europe and the United States — totalled US$216 billion, according to the customs authorities' data.
This marked a slight increase from US$212.4 billion in the same period last year, according to previously released Customs figures. The previous monthly record surplus was US$29.4 billion in September.
Qi of the State Information Centre said the latest figures offered some momentary relief for the Chinese government as it battles to limit the impacts of the global economic crisis at home. "A large trade surplus is what the government currently would like to see," she said.
"It can reduce some pressure on the government's policy making if exports rebound."
However the widening trade surplus could put pressure on China to raise the value of its currency, the yuan, which has stayed at roughly the same level against the dollar since April.
US president-elect Barack Obama said during his campaign that China's huge trade surplus with the US was related to its manipulation of its currency.AFP
BEIJING
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
CHINA said yesterday its trade surplus hit a monthly all-time high of US$35.2 billion ($52.7 billion) in October, as exports remained strong despite the global economic turmoil.
The surplus, up 29.9 per cent from a year ago, reflected demand for China's exports outside the United States and Europe, but it was also the result of a marked slowdown in imports.
Experts said China's trade would soon show more clearly the impacts of the global economic woes, with export growth set to slow following reports already of many factories dependent on overseas sales facing deep difficulties.
"It is not very likely that such fast growth in the surplus will be sustained," said Qi Jingmei, a researcher with the State Information Centre, a Beijing-based government think tank.
Exports in October rose 19.2 per cent from a year ago to US$128.3 billion, compared with 21.5 per cent growth in September, according to the data from the Customs Administration. Qi highlighted the diverse markets for China's exports as one reason for the continued solid performance despite problems selling to the struggling developed markets.
"The demand from Africa, Latin America and Russia is still strong although exports to Europe weakened," Qi said.
China's state-run Xinhua news agency also gave prominence to the diversification cushion, reporting that exports to Latin America grew 52 per cent in the first nine months to US$111.5 billion.
A slowdown in import growth, rising 15.6 per cent in October from a year earlier to US$93.1 billion, was another important factor.
"Import growth fell by large margins, which made the trade surplus look high," said Li Huiyong, a Shanghai-based economist with Shenyin Wanguo Securities.
Since a large portion of China's imports are of input that get assembled and then re-exported, the trend could also signal further declines in exports in the months ahead, according to observers.
The more moderate rise in imports was also seen to reflect sharp declines in the price of oil and other commodities.
In the first 10 months, the trade surplus — long a source of friction with Europe and the United States — totalled US$216 billion, according to the customs authorities' data.
This marked a slight increase from US$212.4 billion in the same period last year, according to previously released Customs figures. The previous monthly record surplus was US$29.4 billion in September.
Qi of the State Information Centre said the latest figures offered some momentary relief for the Chinese government as it battles to limit the impacts of the global economic crisis at home. "A large trade surplus is what the government currently would like to see," she said.
"It can reduce some pressure on the government's policy making if exports rebound."
However the widening trade surplus could put pressure on China to raise the value of its currency, the yuan, which has stayed at roughly the same level against the dollar since April.
US president-elect Barack Obama said during his campaign that China's huge trade surplus with the US was related to its manipulation of its currency.AFP
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
China-style stimulus not for all: Trichet
China-style stimulus not for all: Trichet
SINGAPORE
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
EUROPEAN Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet warned that many nations lacked the fiscal ammunition to take a cue from China and spend billions of dollars to ride out the global financial storm.
Beijing pitched in nearly US$600 billion to the global campaign to stave off the worst downturn in decades to the applause of markets and policymakers who had looked to China to do its bit to help the faltering global economy.
While there is mounting evidence that the United States, Japan and much of Europe are in recession, the world's fourth-largest economy is still growing, albeit at a slower pace than the heady double-digit growth of the past six years.
Trichet said that while some countries were well placed to pump-prime their economies, many lacked sufficient leeway in their budgets.
"They already have deficits now, which are very substantial, and for them the room for manoeuvering does not exist," he told Brazilian TV after the G20 meeting in Sao Paulo.
Reuters
SINGAPORE
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
EUROPEAN Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet warned that many nations lacked the fiscal ammunition to take a cue from China and spend billions of dollars to ride out the global financial storm.
Beijing pitched in nearly US$600 billion to the global campaign to stave off the worst downturn in decades to the applause of markets and policymakers who had looked to China to do its bit to help the faltering global economy.
While there is mounting evidence that the United States, Japan and much of Europe are in recession, the world's fourth-largest economy is still growing, albeit at a slower pace than the heady double-digit growth of the past six years.
Trichet said that while some countries were well placed to pump-prime their economies, many lacked sufficient leeway in their budgets.
"They already have deficits now, which are very substantial, and for them the room for manoeuvering does not exist," he told Brazilian TV after the G20 meeting in Sao Paulo.
Reuters
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